Author: Shruti kapil, researcher - Security and mutual dependence desk.
October 8 was a watershed moment for Jammu and Kashmir as the election results were announced following six years of direct rule from Delhi. A week later, on October 13, the President’s Rule was revoked, enabling formation of government elected by the people of J&K. The three-phase election was held from September 18 to October 1, and 90 assembly members were elected. This was the first election in a decade and came after the historic abrogation of Article 370, which led to a drastic shift in the political landscape of the region.
Exit polls had predicted a hung assembly and independent candidates making a significant impact. However, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and Indian National Congress (INC) achieved a majority and crossed the halfway mark. Independent candidates failed to make a mark in these elections.
Omar Abdullah, the president of the National Conference, was sworn in as the Chief Minister (CM) of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir on October 16th in Srinagar. He has served as a CM of Jammu and Kashmir from 2009 to 2014. However, this is a new beginning, as Jammu and Kashmir is now a Union Territory with limited powers of the new CM.
The Election Commission recorded a 63% overall turnout in the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir elections, with 64% male, 63% female, and 38% third gender. While this is a big jump from the 58% in this year’s Assembly elections, it is still below the 65% in the 2014 elections, which shows a slight decline in voting over the last decade, but overall participation remains robust.
In the 2014 Jammu & Kashmir elections, only 28 women contested out of 831 candidates across 87 seats. In 2024, 44 women are in the fray out of 908 nominations, a 57% increase. While progress is slow, it’s steady. In these elections, three women have won—Shagun Parihar from the BJP and Sakina Itoo and Shamima Firdous from the JKNC—highlighting a growing, if gradual, presence of women in J&K politics.
Figure 1: 2024 J&K assembly elections party-wise results. Data sourced from the Election Commission of India (ECI) website.
Figure 2: 2014 and 2024 J&K Assembly elections party-wise results. Source: ECI
Above in figures 1 and 2 are tables depicting how each party performed in this year’s election compared to the 2014 elections. While direct comparison is difficult due to delimitation changes that changed the constituency boundaries and voter distribution, the data gives a broader view of how national and regional parties performed in these two electoral cycles.
Figure 3: Vote share of major parties in J&K Assembly elections from 1996 to 2024. Source: ECI.
The graph above shows how the vote share of major parties in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections has shifted from 1996 to 2024. BJP is steadily increasing its vote share. Though BJP secured 25% of the votes and JKNC 23%, JKNC has won more seats. This reflects a curious imbalance in the electoral outcome.
This anomaly is because of the ‘first-past-the-post’ (FPTP) system like in the UK, where the candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins the seat regardless of overall vote share. This often leads to odd results where a party with fewer total votes can win more seats, leaving voters questioning if the outcome truly reflects the will of the people.
For instance, in the 2014 J&K elections, the BJP contested 33 seats in Kashmir and received 2.5% of the votes. In 2024, they reduced their candidates to 19 and secured 5.8% of the votes but failed to win a single seat. This raises questions if the FPTP system is accurately translating voter preferences into political representation, as a party’s growing popularity may not translate into actual power— leaving room to question how well the system reflects the people’s true choices.
The 2024 J&K elections revealed sharp regional divisions. JKNC won 35 of 47 seats in Muslim majority Kashmir, and the BJP won 29 of 43 seats in Hindu majority Jammu.
The regional political priorities were contrasting—Kashmir was focused on the restoration of Article 370 while Jammu was focused on security and the fight against cross-border terrorism. Jammu was relatively peaceful, but in the last few years, it has seen a rise in militant attacks as insurgents have shifted their focus to Jammu after the abrogation of Article 370. Despite these threats, voter turnout in Jammu was strong, indicating the region’s resolve in the face of challenges to stability. No major violence was reported, which is a noteworthy change from 170 violent incidents recorded in the 2014 elections.
Another noteworthy change was extremists and separatists embracing the democratic process. They not only voted but also contested the elections. While this signals progress as those who boycotted elections are now participating in the democratic process, it also raises concerns. The inclusion of separatist elements in the mainstream can amplify their ideology and challenge the Indian state’s efforts to maintain peace and stability in Jammu and Kashmir.
Early signs are positive. Candidates linked to banned Jamaat-e-Islami and similar ideologies received minimal support in these elections, indicating the electorate is moving away from extremism and towards peace and development.
International observers should be clear: the road ahead for Jammu and Kashmir is unchartered and challenging. As a Union Territory, there are two authorities in charge: the Omar Abdullah-led state government, in charge of state affairs, and the Lieutenant Governor, in charge of public order, law enforcement, and bureaucracy. The differing views of these two governments further complicate the situation and may lead to governance challenges that can affect the functioning of the state.
The new government in J&K faces a daunting task to deliver on its promise of restoring Article 370, an issue closely tied to the Kashmiri identity. Restoration of Article 370 was the main agenda of most regional parties in the election campaign, as it resonates deeply with a section of the Muslim electorate. However, the real question remains: is this goal even achievable?
The Supreme Court’s verdict on December 11, 2023, on revocation of Article 370 has taken the issue out of politics and into the legal and constitutional domain. Restoring Article 370 and 35A would require a two third majority in Parliament, an uphill battle given the fractured political landscape of India where opinions on this issue remain sharply divided.
One important area of consensus is the restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, which is supported by all regional and national parties. Statehood means full governing powers to the State Legislative Assembly, and J&K would be on par with other Indian states. Currently, Jammu and Kashmir is a Union Territory where significant powers, especially security and law and order, are with the central government in Delhi. Restoring statehood would shift these powers back to the local government.
While the union government assures restoration of statehood, it is approaching the issue with caution due to national security concerns. The challenge now is to restore statehood without compromising the hard-earned security gains. Stability is essential for creating jobs, attracting investment, and promoting tourism. In the past, high levels of militancy led to frequent closures of schools, colleges, and businesses, and daily life was severely disrupted. Kashmiris cannot afford to go back to that instability. The question for the leadership is how to balance the security needs of the region with the strong demand for statehood in J&K.
For the first time, Jammu and Kashmir has embraced democracy on par with other Indian states—a historic milestone for the region. This election marks an important turning point, with increased political participation and improved security since the revocation of Article 370. The people of J&K have taken an active role in shaping their own future, with a secure and fair election process overseen by the Election Commission and security forces. Now, the focus must shift to addressing the region’s critical challenges—unemployment, inflation, drug addiction, and the pressing demand for statehood. For British policymakers and journalists, this election is a testament to the resilience of democracy in a complex region and an opportunity for India to showcase its commitment to both security and progress.