Author: Chloe Schuber, Research & Operations Assistant : Strengthening Democracy Desk
As the 2024 US presidential election nears, US-India relations stand at a critical juncture, shaped by global events and the divergent foreign policy approaches of the candidates. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris offer sharply contrasting visions for this key partnership. Trump’s strategy centres on defence and protectionism, while Harris appears to prioritise broader collaboration in areas like climate change, technology, and multilateral diplomacy. With China’s growing assertiveness in the region, the direction of US-India relations in the coming years will be crucial.
Donald Trump and India: Strategic Gains, Economic Tensions
During his presidency (2017–2021), Donald Trump deepened US-India relations, anchored in his personal camaraderie with Prime Minister Modi. This connection was highlighted by high-profile events such as the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston (2019) – organised by the US Indian diaspora – and the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad (2020). These gatherings showcased a key mutual strategic alignment focused on countering China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific, and strengthening defence ties, economic cooperation, and regional security partnerships.
Under Trump’s administration, US-India relations saw substantial progress in defence and security cooperation. Major defence deals and enhanced intelligence-sharing agreements positioned India as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific. This collaboration was institutionalised through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia. India’s strategic importance in this alliance, aimed at balancing China’s military and economic influence, became central.
As Trump campaigns for a return to the White House in 2024, his approach to US-India relations is likely to be shaped by the “Project 2025″ initiative, which emphasises countering China’s influence as a one of its key strategic objectives. Defence cooperation would remain a central pillar, building on previous achievements such as enhanced arms sales, intelligence sharing, and agreements like COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement). This cooperation is particularly significant as it represents a shift away from India’s historical dependence on Russian military hardware, appearing to bring it closer to Western strategic interests whilst serving India’s goals of multi-alignment.
However, Trump’s “America First” economic policies could again create tensions, particularly in sectors like high-tech and pharmaceuticals. His previous actions, such as imposing tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium and removing India from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programme, led to trade frictions. A second Trump administration might continue to push for greater market access and address trade imbalances, potentially leading to renewed economic challenges in the bilateral relationship.
Kamala Harris: Potential for Re-Engagement
Kamala Harris’s historic rise as the first female Vice-President of the US, with her Indian ancestry, initially generated enthusiasm in India. However, her personal heritage has not translated into significant diplomatic engagement with India. Harris has focused largely on domestic issues, leaving foreign policy, including US-India relations, to other officials within the Biden administration.
A key moment of tension came in 2019, when Harris made remarks on the sensitive issue of Kashmir. She voiced concerns over India’s actions following the revocation of Article 370, stating, “We have to remind Kashmiris they are not alone in the world. We are watching.” This was viewed in India as undue criticism of the government’s domestic policies, which sparked backlash given the country’s sensitivity to foreign commentary on Kashmir.
Her comments, while reflective of broader Democratic concerns around human rights and democracy, were seen as lacking in constructive engagement with India on this complex issue. Despite this friction, Harris’s remarks are unlikely to be a dealbreaker. US-India relations are driven by shared strategic interests—particularly in defence, technology, and trade—so while her comments were poorly received, they have not fundamentally altered the overall trajectory of the partnership.
Climate Change as a Pillar of Future Cooperation
Climate change is emerging as one of the most critical areas for US-India cooperation. For Harris, whose platform prioritises environmental sustainability, climate action could be a cornerstone of her foreign policy, especially in relation to India. Both countries are committed to global frameworks such as the Paris Agreement, and their shared goals in renewable energy present opportunities for deeper cooperation.
Whilst both countries are part of the top three largest emitter of greenhouse gases (with the US often ranking first) is also, India is striving to transition to clean energy, aiming to generate 50% of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. The US could play a pivotal role in supporting this transition through technological partnerships, investment in green infrastructure, and clean energy technology transfer. Collaborations in solar power, wind energy, and electric vehicles would not only help India meet its renewable energy goals but also create new market opportunities for US companies.
For India, like the US, climate change is more than an environmental issue; it is also a matter of national security. Rising temperatures, unpredictable monsoons, and extreme weather events threaten India’s agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure. US-India cooperation on climate resilience, particularly in areas like water management and sustainable agriculture, could mitigate these risks.
In contrast, Trump’s past downplaying of climate change and his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement suggest that environmental cooperation would not be a priority in a second Trump administration. However, given the economic potential of the green energy sector, even Trump may recognise the value of engaging with India on clean energy projects, particularly as India looks to diversify its energy sources.
The Strategic Importance of China
Beyond climate change, US-India relations will continue to be shaped by strategic concerns, particularly regarding China. US-China tensions have become a bipartisan issue with both Trump and Harris acknowledging China as a significant geopolitical competitor. As a result, any future US-India partnership will need to effectively navigate this complex geopolitical landscape. A second Trump term would likely maintain a strong focus on this challenge, while Harris, though less directly involved with India to date, would also need to prioritize defense and security cooperation in response to China’s growing assertiveness.
Conclusion: Shaping a Multi-Faceted Partnership
The 2024 US presidential election offers two different approaches to US-India relations. Trump’s focus is likely to remain on defence and countering China, while Harris presents opportunities for expanded collaboration in areas such as climate change, technology, and economic development. Both candidates acknowledge India’s growing importance, and the future of this partnership will depend on their ability to engage with India on multiple fronts, balancing security, economic, and environmental concerns. The next administration will have the responsibility to strengthen ties between the world’s two largest democracies, navigating a delicate balance between strategic interests and global responsibilities.
