Author: Ornicha Daorueng, research intern
The result of the 2025 papal conclave, which elected Robert Prevost as Pope Leo XIV, the first American and the second pope from the Americas, raises important questions about the future of the Catholic Church. Does his election signal a decisive shift in the Church’s centre of gravity toward the Global South, and a further retreat from Rome’s historic role as the Church’s origin and traditional centre of leadership?
In fact, this shift has been underway for decades. John Paul II, elected in 1978, broke a 455-year tradition as the first non-Italian pope coming from Poland. He was followed by Benedict XVI from Germany, and then Francis, the first Latin American pope, born in Argentina. From Italy to broader Europe, and now the Americas, the leadership of the Church has steadily moved away from its traditional centre, confirming what many have long observed: that the “centre of gravity” in Catholicism is shifting southward.
This transformation is underscored by global Catholic demographics. As of 2023, over 72% of Catholics live in Latin America, Africa, or Asia, while around 20% reside in Europe. Population projections from Our World in Data confirm this trend: between 2025 and 2050, Europe’s total population is expected to decline by 5.5%, while Africa’s is projected to grow by 60%. Latin America, Asia, and North America are also expected to see more modest growth, ranging from 7% to 11%.
This demographic and institutional realignment has fuelled growing calls for Church leadership, including future popes, to come from the Global South. Some fear this could deepen the sense of alienation in Europe, where the Church is already facing a crisis of faith, or raise concerns about the direction the Church might take because of this shift. But the real challenge facing Catholicism today goes beyond demographics. It is whether its leadership can bridge a global Church divided by regional theologies and priorities, while also responding to interfaith tensions and public sentiment between “timeless” tradition and “timely” reform. What ultimately matters to the Church is not where its leaders come from, but whether they can bring unity and purpose to an increasingly fragmented global faith.
Regional theologies and priorities
Catholicism may be unified in doctrine, but it is far from monolithic. Across the world, different regions have developed distinct theological emphases, cultural expressions of faith, and pastoral priorities shaped by local contexts.
For example, African Catholicism often reflects a conservative moral outlook, with an emphasis on family and community values. African bishops have strongly defended traditional Church teachings on sexuality, while challenging Western efforts to liberalise positions on issues such as same-sex unions and communion for the divorced. These stances mirror broader African societal norms, often at odds with Western individualism and liberal values. Latin American Catholicism has long championed liberation theology, a movement that interprets the Gospel through the lens of social justice, economic inequality, and resistance to political oppression. Shaped by regional struggles with poverty and dictatorship, the Church emphasises defending human dignity and standing with the marginalised.
Asian Catholicism values interreligious dialogue and inculturation, as reflected in the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences’ “triple dialogue” with cultures, other religions, and the poor. Asian Catholic theology often draws on cultural traditions and communal values like Confucianism and Taoism to express Christian truths. In India, the Church stresses interreligious dialogue amid deep cultural and religious diversity. Asian Catholics’ resilient faith fits pluralist contexts but can spark concern among traditionalists over doctrinal authenticity. European Catholicism, the historic heartland of Christian theology and culture, now navigates a post-Christian landscape marked by declining religious practice and rising secularism. With fewer young people attending Mass and identifying as religious, the Church is increasingly engaged in highly secularised issues, including debates on gender, bioethics, and cultural identity, seeking to stay relevant while articulating faith in an increasingly secular society.
While holding diverse internal expectations for guidance and accompaniment, the Church also confronts external challenges, particularly tensions with Islam, a global phenomenon intensified by the rapid expansion of both faiths and the rise of Islamism. This is starkly evident in parts of Africa. For instance, although Nigeria’s constitution guarantees religious freedom, conversion from Islam to Christianity is illegal in the country’s 12 Sharia-governed states. This tension is further underscored by the abduction of a Nigerian Catholic priest by Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group that targets Christian communities. These realities highlight the Church’s priorities, and the Pope’s, in protecting its communities and lead interfaith engagement.
Together, these dynamics underscore the challenge of sustaining a unified global Catholic identity while fostering interfaith coexistence. Church leaders must balance, nurture, and reconcile the diverse hopes and needs of Catholics worldwide.
Timely and timeless: the Pope’s spiritual leadership in a divided church
Expectations of the Pope have grown more complex as society has transformed. Today, both Catholics and non-Catholics increasingly expect the Pope to speak out on pressing timely issues and to do so in an inclusive, liberal tone. Topics such as war, refugee crises, climate change, gender, and economic inequality have become central to the public’s moral expectations of the Church. At the same time, the Pope carries the responsibility of preserving the Church’s 2,000-year-old teachings, guiding the timeless values of Catholic tradition: holiness, truth, and charity. This dual role creates a profound tension. The same response to an issue, such as homosexuality, may be hailed by some as compassionate progress, and by others as a regression and a source of confusion about doctrine. These conflicting expectations are not evenly spread; they are reflected in regional and generational divides, as seen in the differing theological priorities across continents. Moreover, digital media has complicated intra-Church dialogue and interreligious relations. Instead of promoting critical thinking and consensus-building, online platforms often amplify misinformation, hate speech, and toxicity, fostering divisive echo chambers and digital tribalism.
The greatest challenge for any 21st-century pope is to represent a truly global Church by balancing the timely with the timeless. This effort became especially visible under Pope Francis, who signalled a new pastoral direction by engaging openly with contemporary global issues. He brought moral leadership to matters, such as climate change, economic inequality, and a more compassionate tone toward LGBTQ individuals. He also reshaped the College of Cardinals to be more inclusive, expanding representation from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Pope Leo XIV has continued this trajectory, though with a more moderate and centrist tone. Doctrinally, he is considered more conservative than his predecessor. Yet he has affirmed his commitment to many of Francis’s priorities, particularly in promoting social justice, environmental concerns, and strengthening the Church’s global inclusivity. In 2023, he urged bishops to adopt “a much broader vision of the Church and reality and experience the universality of the Church,” and to “live this closeness to all, without excluding anyone.” Both Pope Francis and Pope Leo XIV embody a leadership model that seeks to balance the timely and the timeless, ensuring the Church remains a place of belonging for a globally diverse Catholic community.
Catholicism is clearly shifting southward, and it is reasonable to expect that this growing majority may shape future papal leadership. But the deeper challenge is whether the Church, and the papacy, can remain faithful to its tradition while responding to the demands of a changing world. In this context, The Church needs leadership defined not only by geography, but by vision, charisma, and the ability to unify a globally diverse Catholic community.
