Author name: Shruti Kapil

Author: Shruti kapil, researcher – Security and mutual dependence desk. October 8 was a watershed moment for Jammu and Kashmir as the election results were announced following six years of direct rule from Delhi. A week later, on October 13, the President’s Rule was revoked, enabling formation of government elected by the people of J&K. The three-phase election was held from September 18 to October 1, and 90 assembly members were elected. This was the first election in a decade and came after the historic abrogation of Article 370, which led to a drastic shift in the political landscape of the region.  Exit polls had predicted a hung assembly and independent candidates making a significant impact. However, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and Indian National Congress (INC) achieved a majority and crossed the halfway mark. Independent candidates failed to make a mark in these elections.  Omar Abdullah, the president of the National Conference, was sworn in as the Chief Minister (CM) of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir on October 16th in Srinagar. He has served as a CM of Jammu and Kashmir from 2009 to 2014. However, this is a new beginning, as Jammu and Kashmir is now a Union Territory with limited powers of the new CM.  The Election Commission recorded a 63% overall turnout in the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir elections, with 64% male, 63% female, and 38% third gender. While this is a big jump from the 58% in this year’s Assembly elections, it is still below the 65% in the 2014 elections, which shows a slight decline in voting over the last decade, but overall participation remains robust.  In the 2014 Jammu & Kashmir elections, only 28 women contested out of 831 candidates across 87 seats. In 2024, 44 women are in the fray out of 908 nominations, a 57% increase. While progress is slow, it’s steady. In these elections, three women have won—Shagun Parihar from the BJP and Sakina Itoo and Shamima Firdous from the JKNC—highlighting a growing, if gradual, presence of women in J&K politics.  Figure 1: 2024 J&K assembly elections party-wise results. Data sourced from the Election Commission of India (ECI) website.  Figure 2: 2014 and 2024 J&K Assembly elections party-wise results. Source: ECI  Above in figures 1 and 2 are tables depicting how each party performed in this year’s election compared to the 2014 elections. While direct comparison is difficult due to delimitation changes that changed the constituency boundaries and voter distribution, the data gives a broader view of how national and regional parties performed in these two electoral cycles.   Figure 3: Vote share of major parties in J&K Assembly elections from 1996 to 2024. Source: ECI.  The graph above shows how the vote share of major parties in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections has shifted from 1996 to 2024. BJP is steadily increasing its vote share. Though BJP secured 25% of the votes and JKNC 23%, JKNC has won more seats. This reflects a curious imbalance in the electoral outcome.    This anomaly is because of the ‘first-past-the-post’ (FPTP) system like in the UK, where the candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins the seat regardless of overall vote share. This often leads to odd results where a party with fewer total votes can win more seats, leaving voters questioning if the outcome truly reflects the will of the people.  For instance, in the 2014 J&K elections, the BJP contested 33 seats in Kashmir and received 2.5% of the votes. In 2024, they reduced their candidates to 19 and secured 5.8% of the votes but failed to win a single seat. This raises questions if the FPTP system is accurately translating voter preferences into political representation, as a party’s growing popularity may not translate into actual power— leaving room to question how well the system reflects the people’s true choices.  The 2024 J&K elections revealed sharp regional divisions. JKNC won 35 of 47 seats in Muslim majority Kashmir, and the BJP won 29 of 43 seats in Hindu majority Jammu.   The regional political priorities were contrasting—Kashmir was focused on the restoration of Article 370 while Jammu was focused on security and the fight against cross-border terrorism. Jammu was relatively peaceful, but in the last few years, it has seen a rise in militant attacks as insurgents have shifted their focus to Jammu after the abrogation of Article 370. Despite these threats, voter turnout in Jammu was strong, indicating the region’s resolve in the face of challenges to stability. No major violence was reported, which is a noteworthy change from 170 violent incidents recorded in the 2014 elections.  Another noteworthy change was extremists and separatists embracing the democratic process. They not only voted but also contested the elections. While this signals progress as those who boycotted elections are now participating in the democratic process, it also raises concerns. The inclusion of separatist elements in the mainstream can amplify their ideology and challenge the Indian state’s efforts to maintain peace and stability in Jammu and Kashmir.   Early signs are positive. Candidates linked to banned Jamaat-e-Islami and similar ideologies received minimal support in these elections, indicating the electorate is moving away from extremism and towards peace and development.  International observers should be clear: the road ahead for Jammu and Kashmir is unchartered and challenging. As a Union Territory, there are two authorities in charge: the Omar Abdullah-led state government, in charge of state affairs, and the Lieutenant Governor, in charge of public order, law enforcement, and bureaucracy. The differing views of these two governments further complicate the situation and may lead to governance challenges that can affect the functioning of the state.  The new government in J&K faces a daunting task to deliver on its promise of restoring Article 370, an issue closely tied to the Kashmiri identity. Restoration of Article 370 was the main agenda of most regional parties in the election campaign, as it resonates deeply with a section of the Muslim electorate. However, the

Author: Shruti kapil, researcher and mutual dependence desk. The ongoing assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) are not just another political event; they symbolise a turning point in the region’s history. Scheduled to take place in three phases on September 18th, September 25th, and October 1st, these elections are the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, marking several important changes. This will be the first election held in J&K as a Union Territory, the first without Ladakh, which is now a separate Union Territory, and the first following the completion of the delimitation process. The results, expected on October 8th, are poised to shape the region’s future, making this election especially critical.  Since Article 370 was revoked, J&K’s political landscape has experienced substantial shifts. The region lost its special status, which had granted autonomy with its own Constitution, property rights exclusive to “permanent residents,” and preferential rights in education and employment. Additionally, the state was split into two Union Territories—Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh—leading to structural changes that make the upcoming election a key moment to measure public sentiment in this new political environment.  One of the most impactful changes post-abrogation was the delimitation of electoral constituencies. Delimitation refers to the process of redrawing the boundaries of constituencies to ensure equal representation based on population. This process hadn’t taken place in J&K since 1995. The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act of 2019 mandated the creation of additional assembly seats, and as a result, seven new seats were added—six in Jammu and one in Kashmir—altering the political balance. This redistribution is expected to benefit Jammu, which many felt was historically underrepresented.  Despite criticism from regional parties, the delimitation process aims to ensure equal population representation in elections, reinforcing a key aspect of democracy.   Before 2019, J&K’s Assembly had 87 seats: 37 in Jammu, 46 in Kashmir, and 4 in Ladakh, with 24 seats reserved for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoJK) that remained vacant. Following the delimitation, the J&K Assembly now holds 90 seats—43 for Jammu and 47 for Kashmir—after Ladakh was removed. The redistribution is expected to significantly impact the power dynamics between the two regions.    With around 8.8 million eligible voters, including over 93,000 new voters, turnout is anticipated to be strong. The first phase of the assembly elections on September 18 concluded peacefully, recording a 61% turnout across 24 constituencies. Despite a recent surge in terror attacks, Jammu saw notably high participation, while South Kashmir, once known as a hotbed of militancy and previously prone to boycotts, showed up at the polls. Higher voter participation was observed compared to the 60% turnout in the first phase of the 2014 elections, building anticipation for the upcoming two phases.  Political parties in J&K are divided over Article 370. The National Conference (NC), led by Farooq and Omar Abdullah, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) under Mehbooba Mufti, both favour the restoration of Article 370 and statehood. These regional parties argue that the abrogation undermined J&K’s identity and autonomy. On the other side, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) champions the removal of Article 370, claiming it has integrated J&K more fully into India and brought positive changes in governance and development. The Indian National Congress (INC), aligned with NC, is silent on the abrogation. Newer entrants, such as the Apni Party focus on pragmatic governance, with their stances on Article 370 more nuanced.  The table above outlines the key political parties in Jammu and Kashmir, highlighting their stances on Article 370 and the main agendas featured in their manifestos.  This election will also see the Sikh community, traditionally underrepresented, fielding independent candidates for the first time, while former separatists and members of Jamaat-e-Islami*, who historically boycotted elections, are now participating, signalling a significant shift in local politics.   Economic development is a priority for most parties in this election. Despite achieving a 5.7% growth rate from 2014-2022, unemployment, especially among educated youth, is a major concern, with the rate standing at 18.3%, much higher than the national average of 8%. Infrastructure improvements, particularly in road connectivity and electricity, are also central issues, along with addressing agricultural challenges and the rising problem of drug abuse.   As these elections unfold, it remains to be seen how the electorate will respond to the changes that have reshaped their region. The absence of boycott calls, which were common during elections, and the overall improvement in law and order suggest that J&K is entering a new phase of political engagement. While many challenges remain, this election offers an opportunity for the people of Jammu and Kashmir to chart a course towards stability, prosperity, and lasting peace. * Jamaat-e-Islami, formed in the early 1950s, is a socio-political and religious group known for its separatist stance and history of electoral boycotts. It remains controversial and was banned by the Indian government for alleged links with the militant outfit Hizbul Mujahideen.