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India-Pakistan Tensions – Key Developments & Future Risk

Compiled by: Shruti Kapil, Head of Security & Mutual Dependence Desk and Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk Weeks after the Pahalgam terror attack and India’s subsequent Operation Sindoor, tensions between India and Pakistan remain volatile but contained. This briefing note goes beyond the immediate violence to assess the strategic, diplomatic, and societal ripples that continue to unfold. It highlights India’s calibrated military response and diplomatic outreach, Pakistan’s retaliatory rhetoric and shelling, and the uneasy calm that now defines the Line of Control. Critically, the report warns of rising risks to UK social cohesion, as polarised narratives—particularly linking Kashmir to other global conflicts—gain traction in diaspora communities. As geopolitical posturing continues, the paper calls for a clear-eyed, de-escalatory international approach and vigilant domestic management to prevent further instability. Read the full briefing here: India-Pakistan Tensions Key Developments & Future Risk

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Understanding the UK-India FTA

Authors: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk; Amy Wonnacott, Research Intern; Zoe Neiman, Research Intern The UK-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA), agreed yesterday after years of negotiation, marks a critical moment in the evolving relationship between the two countries. With India poised to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade, and its middle class expected to reach 60 million by 2030, and 250 million by 2050, the agreement provides the UK with preferential access to one of the fastest-growing consumer markets. By 2035, Indian demand for imports is projected to exceed £1.4 trillion, offering vast opportunities for British exporters and service providers. The economic benefits for both countries could be significant.   £ billion estimate, applied to 2040 predications Percentage change Change in UK GDP + £4.8 billion +0.1% Change in UK exports to India + £15.7 billion +59.4% Change in UK imports from India + £9.8 billion +25.0% Change in total trade between the UK and India +£25.5 billion +38.8% Source: DBT Modelling Sectors Covered by the Agreement The FTA spans a broad range of sectors, offering benefits for both countries. Tariff Reductions The tariff reductions secured under the deal are among the most generous India has ever agreed to. Indian tariffs on 90% of UK export lines will be reduced, with 85% going tariff-free within a decade. Based on 2022 trade figures, Indian tariff reductions will save UK exporters £400 million in the first year and £900 million annually in ten years. As high priority trade partners, the UK and Indian governments have set an ambitious target of $1 trillion export growth by 2030, facilitated by the mutual concessions in this FTA. Goods Previous tariff FTA tariff India Tariffs on UK Alcohol 150% 75%, 40% over decade Automotive 100% 10%, quota system Cosmetics 10-20% 0% Source: GOV.uk Social security benefits Alongside the FTA, the UK and India have “agreed to negotiate” a reciprocal agreement on social security contributions. This would ensure that British workers seconded to India and Indian workers seconded to the UK need only pay National Insurance and its Indian equivalent, a contribution to the Employees’ Provident Fund, in their home country, avoiding ‘double contribution’. The proposed Double Contributions Convention also extends the period of time for which temporary workers contribute to social security in their home country from 1 to 3 years. This has been criticised in the UK for ‘undercutting’ British workers. However, according to the UK’s Business Secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, this applies only to seconded workers, and mirrors agreements the UK has with the EU, Switzerland, Japan, Chile and South Korea. The workers affected would not gain new rights to access benefits, and Indian workers would still have to pay the NHS surcharge in the UK, which totals £1035 per year. This will not incentivise British businesses to recruit Indian workers over British ones, but does give Indian businesses a competitive advantage over other countries with which the UK lacks such an agreement. Higher education and the legal sector There is speculation that the FTA could present an opportunity for British and Indian businesses to pioneer new commercial ventures, including in AI and cybersecurity, bringing benefits to sectors such as higher education. This is a developing market in India: the University of Southampton opened its Delhi campus in July 2025, Coventry University will open in GIFT City (Gujarat International Finance-Tech City) in 2026, and the University of York plans to open a campus in Mumbai. Though the FTA may encourage further transnational educational initiatives, it has no specific reference either to this, or the greater availability of student visas for Indian international students to the UK. The legal sector is another area of potential UK-India collaboration. It was announced in January 2025 that English-qualified lawyers could register to practice permanently in India, liberalising India’s legal market. Yet this has faced pushback from the Society of Indian Law Firms, and concrete progress remains to be seen. The FTA includes no direct reference to the legal sector, which the Law Society views as a “missed opportunity”. Why is this good for the UK and India? This FTA is the most economically significant bilateral trade deal the UK has made since leaving the EU. The forecasted economic benefits for the UK are significant, contributing to the government’s Plan for Change. Modelling by the UK Department of Business and Trade predicts the deal to add £4.8 billion to the UK economy, and increase wages by £2.2 billion each year. For India, the reduction of tariffs in key sectors such as green energy, medical and life sciences will be crucial for its growth trajectory. India’s energy strategy remains reliant on coal, but aims for net-zero emissions by 2070 and has set ambitious targets towards solar and renewables. Facilitating trade in renewable energy equipment will support India’s transition, alongside the opportunity to use expertise from UK businesses and government procurement.  Healthcare is one of India’s largest sectors and is projected to reach $194 billion by 2032. Lowering tariffs on British exports of medical goods will facilitate this rapid growth, improving care quality and reducing the cost of private healthcare. Importantly, the FTA provides a platform from which other deals could be negotiated. Proposals for a follow-up Investment Treaty have been discussed, and the FTA offers the opportunity to deepen economic and strategic ties between two powerful economies, while supporting both manufacturers and consumers and UK presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

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India’s ‘Opportunity’ in the US-China Trade War: Trump’s Strategy Behind India Tariffs 

Author: Zoe Neiman, Research Intern India is widely recognised as a major economy, yet remains one of the most protectionist, having maintained high import tariffs long before Trump’s new trade measures. India’s average tariff rate for trading partners is among the highest for major economies, averaging 13.8% compared to the US’ 3.3%. Certain Indian sectors like agriculture, automobiles and electronics are protected by even steeper duties. India’s protectionism has historical roots in its post-independence strategy of economic self-reliance, shaped by fears of foreign domination, to safeguard domestic industries from hyper-scaled foreign competitors. However, in today’s globalised economy, such a defensive stance risks limiting India’s growth and competitiveness, signifying it is time to reconsider and reduce protectionist barriers. This enduring protectionism has drawn criticism from the Trump administration. He repeatedly cites examples such as the high import duty on Harley-Davidson motorcycles and strong trade barriers on Indian agriculture, arguing the US is being taken advantage of in trade deals. Trump characterises India as the ‘tariff king’, highlighting the disparity between US openness to imports and India’s restrictive barriers. His administration’s retaliatory tariffs were presented as corrective measures aimed at rebalancing trade relationships and pressuring India to reduce its protectionist policy, paving the way for a more reciprocal bilateral trading relationship. Why then, are the tariffs imposed on India so trivial in comparison to its competitors in the region? These tariffs serve to mask a wider calculated strategy, that of continuing Biden’s strategic partnership with India as a counter to China in the Indo-Pacific.  US Tariffs Strengthened Indian Competitiveness  At first glance, India appears to be hard-hit by the 26% US tariffs, particularly in sectors like textiles, electronics, and engineering. However, crucial exports such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and energy products remain untaxed. Pharmaceuticals, in particular, were spared due to their importance to the US, with 30% of Indian pharmaceutical exports directed to American markets. Agricultural exports are expected to remain stable or even grow, and India’s electronics and textiles sectors are advantageously positioned, as rival exporters like China (54-79%), Vietnam (46%) and Bangladesh (37%) face much steeper duties. India’s textiles sector is set to gain from the tariffs, as the US is already placed as India’s largest buyer accounting for $10 billion of India’s $36 billion exports in 2023-2024. Additionally, sectors dominated by China and Thailand, such as machinery, automobiles and toys, are vulnerable to tariff-driven supply chain shifts, presenting India with an opportunity to attract investment. Altogether, these subtleties reveal that rather than punishing India, Trump’s strategy strengthens Indian competitiveness, showing the hollowness of his ‘tariff king’ rhetoric.   Bipartisan Prioritisation of India  In 2017, Trump had shifted toward strategic alignment with India, reviving the Quad and placing India under Strategic Trade Authorisation Level 1, equal to NATO allies. Biden’s administration significantly expanded upon and institutionalised the US-India partnership, recognising India’s significance for the US’ wider ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ strategy. Developments such as the iCET Initiative (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology), and expanding defence cooperation by increasing military interoperability, joint exercises and agreements like BECA and COMCASA solidified the comprehensive strategic partnership. Biden also elevated India’s role in the Quad and made US-India joint training the most frequent bilateral defence cooperation. Under Biden, the US became India’s largest trading partner, with US goods exports to India at $41.8 billion and Indian exports to the US at $87.4 billion in 2024. India’s trade deficit with the US stands at $45.7 billion (2024) with strong reciprocal trade, whilst it has reached $99.2 billion with China at the beginning of this year.    When analysing the current administration’s India policy, there is a continuation and development of this approach. Looking past Trump’s rhetoric, largely condemning the Biden administration in all policy areas, there is a sharpened strategic commitment to India. Through the expansion of defence cooperation, joint military exercises, promoting arms sales and the co-production of technology, Trump has continued the path set by Biden. Equally, in the economic sector, the tariffs imposed have not translated into a rupture of US-India relations. Rather, it has generated greater momentum for the US-India FTA, to further formalise US-India economic ties. During the 90-day pause set by the Trump administration on 9 April 2025, the US has prioritised bilateral trade negotiations with India, stating a comprehensive FTA will be reached in autumn 2025. Trump has also expressed intent to revive American manufacturing and reduce dependency on China, creating opportunities for India in tech, electronics and manufacturing. India’s manufacturing sector as a whole is not yet strong enough to compete with China. Infrastructure deficiencies, a complex regulatory environment and labour reforms, high input costs, and skilled labour shortages plague Indian manufacturing development, decreasing the likelihood of India maximising on the emerging shift away from Chinese manufacturing. Still, recent developments such as Apple’s decision to relocate all US iPhone production from China to India highlight a growing commitment to de-risking from Chinese supply chains and positioning India as a preferred alternative. Trump’s strategy will further initiatives like Biden’s iCET, continuing India’s inclusion in secure supply chains, albeit framed in terms of economic nationalism rather than cooperative globalisation.   The timing and framing of these tariffs serve two strategic purposes. First, they obscure the continuity between Trump and Biden’s approaches by packaging the policy in economic nationalist rhetoric for domestic political purposes, while quietly expanding cooperation in critical sectors. Second, by presenting the tariffs as part of a universal ‘fair trade’ framework, the US allows its strategic alignment with India, principally in countering China’s trade practices and Indo-Pacific aggression, to remain subtle yet effective. This positioning enables India to absorb foreign investment and supply chain shifts away from China and benefit from trade realignment, all while reinforcing the US-India relationship. In this way, Trump’s tariffs operate less as punitive measures and more as tools to reinforce a strategic partnership already cultivated under Biden, now advancing under a different guise.  Towards Shared Strategic Interests   Recent developments have further revealed this calibrated approach. Vice President Vance’s visit to India was presented

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Securing India’s Future: Lessons from the Pahalgam Terror Attack

Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director On 25th April at around 2:50pm, a clear afternoon, in the meadows of Pahalgam—a town long associated with Kashmir’s serene beauty and emerging peace—terror struck with ruthless precision. The attack was not random. It was a deliberate assault on the fragile but real gains that Kashmir, and India more broadly, have painstakingly nurtured over the past decade. See Understanding Kashmir post 370. Beyond the immediate tragedy, the Pahalgam attack compels us to ask deeper questions: How must India’s security architecture evolve to meet the demands of an era defined by hybrid threats, proxy warfare, and disinformation? And more fundamentally, how must India’s society renew its long-term commitment to resilience—not just in tactical terms, but as a civilisational imperative? Pahalgam: More Than a Town, A Symbol Pahalgam has, over recent years, become emblematic of a new narrative in Kashmir: one of reconciliation, tourism, and quiet normalcy. Visitors flocked to its valleys, hospitality flourished, and the region began to shed the heavy legacy of insurgency and militarisation. Striking Pahalgam, therefore, was more than an act of terror—it was an attack on the very idea that Kashmir could move beyond cycles of fear. It was designed to reignite trauma, to destabilise confidence, and to fracture India’s carefully woven fabric of recovery. Understanding this symbolic dimension is essential. Security is not just about preventing physical attacks. It is about safeguarding progress itself. A Response Marked by Professionalism It is important to note that the immediate security response to the Pahalgam attack was commendable.  Coordination between agencies was swift, professional, and effective demonstrating that many structural reforms implemented over the past decade have matured into real operational capacity. Even critical observers across political lines have acknowledged the absence of major lapses in either intelligence response or tactical execution. In this specific case, it is perhaps more accurate to describe the operational environment as an intelligence black area:Signals were sparse, patterns were diffuse, and no significant early-warning indicators were available. Thus, while there was no actionable failure, the event reaffirms the need for continual enhancement of India’s intelligence synthesis capabilities—especially in challenging terrains where information gaps persist. Strengthening the Foundations for the Future Building on these gains, India must continue strengthening its security architecture—not as a criticism of what was lacking at Pahalgam, but as a proactive investment in future resilience. First, institutional coordination must be permanently embedded. The establishment of a Unified Security Command at the regional level ensures that in more complex, multi-site scenarios, the clarity of command remains robust. Second, intelligence must be fused, not just collected. Regional Intelligence Fusion Centres, integrating inputs from human, technical, and local sources in real time, can better address intelligence black spaces—especially in an era where adversaries are innovating faster than traditional structures can adapt. Third, strategic vigilance must be redundant but discreet. In Kashmir today, security is increasingly invisible by design—a sign of success, not weakness. Maintaining layers of unseen resilience—through surveillance technologies, predictive analysis, and rapid response forces—ensures that normal life can flourish without overt securitisation. The Cross-Border Reality: Old Tactics, Evolving Strategies The persistence of cross-border terror infrastructures is a reality India cannot ignore.  Groups operating from Pakistani territory, often with varying degrees of state support or tacit complicity, continue to act as force multipliers for instability. While India’s international diplomatic efforts to expose and isolate such tactics are important, the primary lesson is clear: self-reliance is paramount. After the Uri attack in 2016, India’s doctrinal shift toward surgical strikes and proactive countermeasures demonstrated that deterrence can and must be enforced when necessary.The Balakot air strikes of 2019 further expanded India’s willingness to act beyond its borders to defend national security. Pahalgam reaffirms this trajectory. A sustainable security strategy must retain full-spectrum deterrence capabilities—including covert disruption, strategic messaging, economic countermeasures, and calibrated kinetic options. Hybrid Warfare: Securing the Physical and the Psychological The Pahalgam attack was not confined to the physical realm. Within hours, manipulated videos, false flag narratives, and communal polarization efforts began to circulate across social media platforms.  This is the signature of hybrid warfare:The blending of physical attacks with psychological operations to fragment, disorient, and weaken societies from within. India’s security doctrine must now formally treat strategic communications, information security, and societal resilience as critical domains of national defence. Dedicated information command units, real-time media monitoring cells, and partnerships with civil society actors must become the norm, not the exception. India must not only defeat attacks on its borders. It must also defend truth itself. Technology, Human Capital, and Sustainable Security India has rightly invested heavily in security technology, from AI surveillance to smart fencing and sensor networks. However, one key insight from global military practice must be emphasised: Technology must augment high-quality human capital, not substitute for it. In Western military models, technological investments build upon strong human analytic and operational capacities. For India to fully realise the dividends of its technological investments, parallel investments must be made in training, leadership development, and systemic human capital uplift across security forces. Only when people and technology evolve together can true operational transformation occur. Global Context: A Broader Trend What India faces is not unique. The use of disinformation alongside kinetic action is now a staple of global conflicts—from the Ukraine-Russia war to operations in the Middle East. This underscores another vital point: India’s experience, and India’s innovations in hybrid defence, will have global relevance. As India’s geopolitical stature rises, so too will the necessity of sharing best practices, building resilience networks, and shaping global norms for hybrid conflict response. In that sense, India’s fight is part of a broader human struggle—to defend open societies against forces that seek to corrode them from within. Toward a Sustainable Security Strategy From Pahalgam, several imperatives emerge clearly: Operationalise Unified Commands: Seamless, multi-agency coordination must be built into daily operations. Create Regional Intelligence Fusion Centres: Actionable intelligence must move rapidly to prevent, not just respond to, attacks. Maintain Strategic Vigilance: Invisible but constant layers of security must protect

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The Pahalgam Attack: Context, Impact, and Implications

Compiled by: Shruti Kapil, Head of Security & Mutual Dependence Desk and Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk The recent terror attack in Pahalgam, which targeted civilians and marked a serious escalation in violence in Jammu and Kashmir, has reignited pressing concerns about the region’s security environment and its wider geopolitical ramifications. With preliminary evidence indicating the involvement of Pakistan-based terrorist groups, the incident highlights the persistent threat of cross-border militancy. For the United Kingdom, this is more than a distant security issue—it raises important questions about how it responds to terrorism abroad, the narratives it allows to shape public discourse, and the cohesion of its own diverse communities. Accurately framing such incidents is essential, both to uphold international norms and to safeguard the UK’s commitment to pluralism and mutual respect.   This paper explores the wider implications of the Pahalgam attack—regionally and internationally—and makes the case for why a clear-eyed assessment of such events is essential for informed UK policy and social stability. Read the full paper here: The Pahalgam Attack Briefing Paper  

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Expanding Bilateral Cooperation in an Uncertain World 

Authors: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk; Zoe Neiman, Research Intern; Niharika Girsa, Research Intern Following a week where the US has imposed tariffs on much of the rest of the world – and quickly reversed that decision – the current system of global cooperation is under significant strain. Yet against the backdrop of the current volatility, the 13th UK-India Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) shows that there is still scope for longer-term international cooperation in addressing global challenges. The measures agreed by UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Indian Minister of Finance Nirmala Sitharaman represent not only a £400m boost to the British economy, but also a valuable deepening of UK-India bilateral ties. The key outcomes include investment by India’s largest digital payments platform into the UK, the expansion of UK universities into the Indian market, and closer economic ties established through the financial services sector.    What have previous EFDs decided?  The UK-India EFD is a recurring high-level meeting between the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and India’s Finance Minister, focusing on strengthening bilateral economic and financial ties. These dialogues address areas such as financial services, infrastructure development, sustainable finance and trade. Since 2020, UK-India EFDs have consistently prioritised sustainable financial services, infrastructure investment and green finance, shaping the direction of their economic partnership. The 10th EFD, in October 2020, launched the New Partnership on Infrastructure Financing and Policy to drive sustainable infrastructure investment and launched strategic cooperation on GIFT City (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City), India’s first International Financial Centre, promoting ties with UK’s financial services ecosystem. Progression of both projects followed in the 11th EFD in September 2021, with the UK and India reaffirming commitments to GIFT City development as a global FinTech and sustainable finance hub. The UK also committed $1 billion in climate finance investment in India through British International Investment (the UK’s development finance institution), alongside increased support for the Green Growth Equity Fund and the launch of the Climate Finance Leadership Initiative with India, emphasising the continued prioritisation of sustainable finance and infrastructure investment. The 12th EFD in September 2023 reinforced this direction, with continued focus on GIFT City, the FinTech Joint Working Group, and expanding private sector-led sustainable finance initiatives. Over the past five years sustainable investment and green finance have become central to UK-India economic cooperation.     Could Indian technology support British small businesses?  The commercial package agreed at the 13th EFD includes plans for Paytm, India’s largest digital payments app, to invest in the UK. This will “accelerate access to affordable digital payments and credit for small businesses.” Paytm is a pioneer in digital transactions that has reshaped India’s payment landscape. By rapidly rolling out affordable QR codes, Paytm has successfully brought traditionally cash-reliant merchant segments, from small corner shops to street vendors into the digital payments ecosystem. It has also contributed to financial inclusion at an individual level by leveraging technology to bring banking and financial services to a broader population, accelerating India’s shift towards cashless transactions, enabling both peer-to-peer fund transfers and merchant payments through the United Payments Interface (UPI). The scale of UPI uptake is vast. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monthly bulletin highlights an impressive ten-fold increase in UPI transactions over the past four years, soaring from 12.5 billion in 2019-20 to 131 billion in 2023-24. This growth accounts for 80% of India’s total digital payment volume. Notably, UPI transactions grew by 57% year-on-year in FY24, while debit card transactions saw a decline of 43%. The global significance of UPI, and the wider Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) of which it is part, has gained increasing recognition: DPI deployment by 2030 is considered crucial in fulfilling the UN SDGs. With the UK’s Treasury Committee highlighting in May 2024 that British small businesses increasingly lack banking support, Paytm’s investment can bring direct benefits to the British economy whilst also positively contributing to the global financial system.     UK-India university collaboration can strengthen Higher Education globally  With universities in the UK under significant – and worsening – financial strain, many have turned to setting up overseas campuses in recent years. Historically, foreign universities could not establish campuses in India. However, India’s 2020 National Education Policy emphasises the need to open up the Indian Higher Education (HE) sector to international students and researchers. This prompted a regulatory change in 2023, with the University of Southampton becoming the first British university to receive a licence to start a campus in India under the new scheme. Not only does this enhance the quality of HE provision and research in India, fostering knowledge exchange, but it also reinforces the global attractiveness of UK HE institutions, contributing to British soft power. At the 13th EFD, it was announced that Coventry University has received approval to establish a campus in GIFT City, with undergraduate degrees in Business to be offered from 2026. It is the first English university to receive approval in GIFT City, with Queen’s University Belfast beginning operations there in January 2026. With this expansion, there is scope for Coventry University’s online and project-based learning offering to be further extended in India. As well as reinforcing the ‘living bridge’ between the UK and India, this outcome from the 13th EFD marks a move towards a more globally distributed HE system, which recent ICfS research has argued is critical to the future of global HE.    Banking and financial services  Several initiatives were announced at the 13th UK-India EFD concerning the banking and financial sectors. HSBC Bank will expand into 20 additional cities in India, covering 95% of its wealth market, Standard Chartered with open offices in GIFT City, Revolut is preparing for launch in India having received RBI authorisation, the FinTech company Wise plans to open an office in Hyderabad and India will pave the way to allow Indian companies to list internationally, including on the London Stock Exchange. These indicate the potential for closer financial ties between the UK and India going forward, which benefits both India’s efforts to become

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India’s Kumbha: a testament to the world’s largest traditional gathering to build social capital 

Author: Nitish Parwani In 2025 Prayag, a city that dates back thousands of years, hosted the Maha Kumbha Mela, which has concluded, leaving behind a historic testament to faith, logistical prowess, and the sheer power of collective participation. The occasion was tipped to be monumental in scale. What transpired seems to have exceeded all expectations and redefined the scale of human convergence. With reports indicating that over 660 million pilgrims attended across the 45-day gathering, the initial estimate of 400 million, a gargantuan number in and of itself, was dwarfed. This staggering figure indicates the immense pull of an ancient tradition. Hindus from across the world of all ages, castes, class, creed, and race merged into one confluence of humanity. Coupled with this are the logistical challenges that were successfully navigated in bringing together such vast numbers of diverse people from across the world.   A ₹63.82 billion (roughly US$740 million) budget is nothing to sneeze at for a country like India, which has so many other commitments and priorities: combating poverty on the one hand and satisfying the 21st century ambitions of its 500 million middle class on the other. But Indian culture has always been a blend of religiosity and mercantilism, and the Kumbha was no different. The Kumbha generated approximately ₹ 3 trillion (US$35 billion) in economic activity, representing a 47x Return on Investment. However, reducing the Kumbha to mere economic arithmetic would be to misconstrue the occasion, and run against the spirit of which it stands for. The gathering has a profound spiritual significance for pilgrims; and beyond this, it has also provided a critical case study in social capital, large-scale volunteerism, and the management of a temporary city of unimaginable proportions.  Central to the Kumbha experience was to witness the enduring spirit of seva, or selfless service. On 29th January, for instance, nearly 100 million people were present in the city. Yet, amidst this sea of humanity, in a country with 400 million citizens who live below the poverty line, not one person apparently went hungry. Food was available for all, not as a commodity to be bought, but as a selfless offering. Massive community kitchens sprang up across the Mela grounds, throughout the Mela period, offering fine delicacies and beverages to one and all. There were no price tags, no transactions, and no expectations. In fact, any attempt to offer money in return was met with a firm refusal, and sometimes even disapproval. The spirit that fuelled these mammoth kitchens was seva, where feeding another was an act of devotion, a way to serve the divine present in each pilgrim.  The spirit of voluntary service extended beyond food. Teams of medics from across the country arrived to offer free medical aid. Organisations like the ‘National Medico Organisation’ set up free health camps, while initiatives like ‘Netra Kumbha’ provide eye check-ups and cataract surgeries at no cost. Numerous ashrams and organisations established free medical camps, reinforcing the idea that healthcare, like food, should be available to all, irrespective of status or wealth.   A unique economic model sustained the operations of this large scale without direct financial transactions, making Kumbha-Mela a case study for economists. Reserving that discussion for another article, this piece focuses on another currency: social capital. As thinkers like Pierre Bourdieu (1986) and Robert Putnam (2000) have discussed, social capital is the foundation upon which communities thrive. It is the trust, the networks, and the shared values that bind people together and enable cooperation beyond personal or material gain. India’s enduring civilisation owes much to this invisible wealth.   The Kumbha Mela is a living laboratory for studying ‘social capital’ and seva. The 2025 event, with its record-breaking attendance, provided a critical test of this concept. The volunteering activities and the ‘infrastructure of goodwill’ complemented the state’s efforts, proving that formal governance alone cannot sustain a society—people’s willingness to give and serve is just as crucial. The successful deployment of police and security forces, alongside tens of thousands of sanitation workers and countless volunteers, demonstrated the power of coordinated action. The achievement of multiple Guinness World Records, including the largest simultaneous river clean-up and the highest number of volunteers participating in a single-site cleanliness drive, testified the collective commitment to a shared goal.   At the Kumbha, the barriers of class, caste, and status were eclipsed by social capital. A rickshaw puller, who earns his livelihood on daily wages, can be seen distributing food alongside a wealthy jeweller. An IT professional was washing dishes next to students like many of those in our group from Oxford, who saved for months just to attend the Mela. In these acts of service, the distinctions seemed to fade. However, despite the powerful spirit of equality demonstrated by the volunteers, there were few occasions where the presence of VIP movements seemed to dilute this. Special enclosures and privileges for certain groups stood in contrast to the overarching ethos of the Mela, momentarily disrupting the otherwise seamless breaking of class barriers.   The Kumbha also defied the common perception of discrimination based on caste or class in India. Pilgrims took a dip in the sacred waters together, served side by side in voluntary activities, and ate from the same community kitchens, breaking long-held social barriers. No one asked about caste or economic background when offering or receiving food, medical aid, or other services. The Mela created a space where the human identity transcends constructed divisions, reaffirming the idea that collective well-being is greater than individual differences.  The 2025 Maha Kumbha Mela has concluded, but its legacy will endure. It has demonstrated the remarkable capacity of human organisation, the enduring power of faith, and the transformative potential of social capital.     

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India’s Green Energy Transition: A Strategic Imperative for Economic and Energy Security

Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director Introduction The global energy paradigm is shifting at an unprecedented pace. Countries that take decisive action today will shape the future economic and geopolitical order. Renewable energy, electrification, and sustainable industries are no longer just climate necessities but have become economic imperatives. Brazil’s recent announcement of a $6 trillion investment in energy transition by 2050 signals the emergence of a new global economic hierarchy, one where clean energy is a foundation of economic power. India, with its rapid economic growth, rising energy demand, and global leadership aspirations, cannot afford to lag. India has made remarkable progress, achieving over 220 GW of renewable energy capacity in a relatively short space of time, and leads international initiatives like the International Solar Alliance (ISA). However, the pace of transformation must accelerate. The transition to clean energy is not simply a goal, but a prerequisite for economic stability, energy security, and industrial competitiveness in the 21st century. This article explores the strategic imperative of India’s energy transition, focusing on the roles of renewables: how the cost of green hydrogen needs to be brought down; Nuclear energy: by introducing Small Modular Reactors into the mix; Securing critical minerals: by accelerating domestic mining projects; and Climate finance: how India can attract the $10 trillion it needs: by expanding the Green bond market and establishing a carbon exchange market. It outlines policy measures, investment strategies, and private-public partnerships necessary for positioning India as a global leader in clean energy innovation. The Growing Energy Demand and the Need for Transition India’s energy demand is projected to double by 2050, driven by urbanisation, industrialisation, and population growth. The country is currently the third-largest consumer of energy and is heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports, which account for over 80% of crude oil consumption. Comparison to Top Consumers It is particularly worth noting that the average Chinese citizen consumes almost three times as much as the average Indian. This is largely due to India’s significantly smaller industrial base, as well as relatively smaller income per capita. As of 2023, India’s per capita income was a trifling $2,500, and even adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, only $9,000. The PPP figure broadly correlates with China’s income per capita being almost three times as much. India’s demand for energy (*Projected estimates)   Without swift intervention, India will be at risk from rising energy costs, increasing trade deficits, and exposed to high inflation. India’s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels – with over 80% of its crude oil, and 50% of its natural gas coming from foreign sources – makes it highly vulnerable to global energy price fluctuations. Any surge in oil prices directly impacts India’s trade deficit, increasing the cost of imports and leading to inflationary pressures across industries and households. This dependence also weakens energy security, since geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East or OPEC production cuts, can disrupt supply chains and cause price volatility. Without a swift transition to a domestic mix of renewable and nuclear energy sources, India will continue to face economic instability, and fiscal strain on its national economy. Investing in clean energy is not just an environmental necessity but a strategic economic imperative to ensure long-term stability and energy independence. The urgency to transition is further reinforced by the escalating impact of climate change. In 2023 alone, India experienced extreme climate events, including record-breaking heatwaves, devastating floods, and prolonged droughts, all of which underscore the urgent need for a resilient and sustainable energy ecosystem. The country recorded its hottest February in 122 years, impacting agriculture and water availability. In June, catastrophic floods in Assam displaced over 5 million people, while Mumbai saw its heaviest July rainfall in four decades, disrupting transportation and economic activity. Meanwhile, the rest of Maharashtra, and states like Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu faced severe drought conditions, with over 200 reservoirs running critically low, affecting irrigation and drinking water supplies. These climate-induced disasters resulted in economic losses exceeding $18 billion, emphasising the high cost of inaction. Without a rapid transition to clean energy, India will continue to face rising climate risks, economic damage, and environmental instability, threatening both human and economic security. The Role of Nuclear Energy in India’s Clean Energy Future While solar and wind power are critical, they are intermittent energy sources and require backup solutions. Nuclear power provides stable, zero-carbon electricity and is essential for ensuring a secure, 24/7 power supply. India’s nuclear capacity currently stands at 7 GW, contributing only 2% of total electricity generation. The government has set ambitious targets to increase nuclear capacity to 22 GW by 2030 and 50 GW by 2050. India has a unique advantage in nuclear energy: vast thorium reserves. Unlike uranium, thorium is more abundant and safer as a fuel source. India has already initiated a three-stage nuclear program that prioritises the use of pressurised heavy water reactors (PHWRs), fast breeder reactors (FBRs), and advanced thorium reactors. India has been actively collaborating with global partners to accelerate nuclear infrastructure development, regulatory modernisation, and advanced reactor deployment. Two of the most significant partnerships in this domain are with France and the United States, both of which aim to enhance India’s nuclear capacity and technological capabilities. Signed Agreement: The deal between EDF (Électricité de France) and NPCIL (Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited) was reaffirmed in 2023, advancing technical studies and financial negotiations. Strategic Benefits: Jaitapur will provide carbon-free electricity for 70 million homes. Technology Transfer & Fuel Supply: France has also committed to long-term nuclear fuel supply and technology transfer, helping India advance its nuclear expertise.   India-France Nuclear Agreement India and France have been long-term nuclear partners, and their collaboration has deepened under India’s civil nuclear program. The most notable agreement involves the construction of six European Pressurised Reactors (EPRs) in Jaitapur, Maharashtra, which, once operational, will generate 9.6 GW of nuclear power, making it the largest nuclear power project in the world.   India-USA Civil Nuclear Cooperation & Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)

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Protecting British Democracy from Big Tech’s Big Money

Author: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk Who do politicians work for? Modern democracy relies on decision-makers being accountable to the people they govern. Yet political parties seem increasingly in thrall to those with deep pockets, ranging from well-heeled private donors to the titanic influence of Elon Musk on Donald Trump’s re-election campaign. The risk to British democracy has been laid bare by rumours that Musk was planning a $100 million donation to Reform UK. In this climate, the UK must urgently introduce a monetary cap on donations to political parties and needs more extensive public education for citizens on political party funding.  The holes in the current framework  The UK’s regulatory framework for donations to political parties is relatively relaxed. There is no formal cap on how much any donor can donate to a political party. Donations under £500 need not be reported, whilst those over £11,180 must be by law, a threshold increased from £7,500 in early 2024. The transparency of one’s financial transactions is the only real limit in play. Transparency is also having to do more work than ever before: the outgoing Conservative Government increased the general election campaign expenditure limit for each party from £30,000 to £54,010 per constituency, alongside other limits relating to candidates’ expenses. If parties and candidates can spend more, fundraising efforts – and larger and larger donations – will only increase. As Tom Brake has recently pointed out, this situation is exacerbated by donations made by unincorporated associations. These bodies range from golf clubs to dining societies and need not report their finances in the way charities or companies do.  In comparison to the UK’s European neighbours, state funding for political parties is minimal, producing a reliance on private donations. Following the 2024 General Election, just under £7 million was distributed to opposition parties in the House of Commons in ‘short money’ to support parliamentary business, travel costs and the Leader of the Opposition’s office. An additional £1.9 million was disbursed in policy development grants across all political parties in the 2023-24 financial year. In Germany, by contrast, the cap on state funding of political parties in 2024 was €219 million, with private donations a much smaller financial source.  Despite this, the UK is better-off than some other major democracies around the world. For the last 15 years, since the famous Citizens United decision, corporations in the USA have been able to spend unlimited amounts on elections, since any restrictions are considered by the US Supreme Court to violate free speech rights. Meanwhile, India’s Supreme Court declared in February 2024 that it was unconstitutional for political parties to receive donations through anonymous promissory notes termed ‘Electoral Bonds’.  Whilst this protects voters’ rights to information in form, it may also increase the number of unreported cash donations to parties, thus making Indian democracy more opaque.  Why Musk’s donations are a new kind of threat  In this landscape, Musk’s donations – as well as those of any other social media giants – raise a new kind of threat for democracy. All political parties need some form of funding, whether from private donors or the state, to finance their campaigns and provide a space for those with similar political views to assemble and exchange ideas. Yet major private donors can also leverage their financial hold over parties to secure their desired political outcomes, or simply turn a profit.   Musk poses not only this threat, but one that strikes at the heart of any democracy Increasingly, social media platforms such as X not only aspire to be the public sphere, but are it. Research by Ofcom in 2023 shows that 47% of UK adults use social media for news, rising to 71% of 16–24-year-olds. Those like Musk and Mark Zuckerberg who own and control social media platforms have almost unrestricted power to control what ideas can be exchanged in these public spaces, with no accountability to their users or to government. When this power is turned towards the interests of one political party, democracy is eroded from within, because electoral politics is no longer a level playing field. Musk’s role in government following Trump’s re-election should raise alarm bells here, as should his recent appearance at an Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) rally ahead of the German federal elections in February. Because of this, policymakers cannot treat the owners of social media companies as they would any other private donor: more extensive restrictions and transparency requirements are needed because such donations open up multiple paths to influencing elections.   A cap on donations is needed  Discussion about a cap on donations to political parties has intensified in recent weeks in the UK. In an Opinium poll carried out for pressure group Unlock Democracy, two-thirds of the 2,000-odd respondents across parties supported some limits on donations. The Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, raised a question in Parliament on the matter on 8 January 2025, reiterating a position from his party’s 2024 spring conference. Most recently, Liberal Democrat MP Manuela Perteghella introduced a Bill into the House of Commons on 12 February 2025 to impose a fair cap on donations and outlaw foreign donations. Since Musk might use a British subsidiary of X to make a donation, a cap is the most straightforward option for tackling the challenge he poses: it will ensure that nobody – Musk or otherwise – could donate $100m to one party in one go.  Where that cap is set is another matter entirely. Recent commentary for The Constitution Society argues that there is no ‘silver bullet’ for reforming party funding: any cap on donations would “significantly reduce party income and expenditure”, to the detriment of parties’ ability to engage the electorate and hold governments to account. Although political parties today are often viewed as tribal fronts, rather like rival football teams, a political world made up solely of independent politicians would lack the infrastructure to regularly bring elected politicians at all levels and the public together to campaign around

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Interlinking Sustainable Democracy and Sustainable Education: A Roadmap for Reform

Authors: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk and Pavel Cenkl, Fellow at the ICfS This paper by Pavel Cenkl and Pravar Petkar presents a transformative vision linking sustainable democracy with sustainable education across the UK, USA, and India. Drawing on the philosophies of Rabindranath Tagore and Jiddu Krishnamurti, and grounded in systems thinking and civic republicanism, it proposes a model of education that fosters civic engagement, ecological awareness, and participatory governance. The authors argue for innovations in higher education—such as regenerative learning, service-based projects, and distributed networks—that equip learners to address intertwined political, ecological, and educational crises. Their conceptual roadmap calls for rethinking education as a driver of democratic renewal. Read the full paper here.

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