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What will the next US President’s approach to China mean for a rising India?

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Author: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk How does a global ruling power react to a rising power? Harvard Professor Graham Allison argues that the ruling power’s fear can provoke conflict with the rising power, in what he terms the ‘Thucydides Trap’. For him, the US and China are locked in such a struggle. As India continues to aspire to global superpower status in the future, how will the US respond in the medium term, based on its ongoing tensions with China? Examining how the two candidates in the US presidential election approach the US-China relationship suggests that how India pursues greater influence will be critical to future US-India relations, with comments on its democratic credentials less significant in the current geopolitical climate.  The Harris approach  For the Democrats, there are two broad reasons why the US distrusts China. The first is more realist: China seeks supremacy in the Indo-Pacific for its own ends. It is catching up to the US in economic terms and has rapidly expanded in military terms. What John Hulsman calls the ‘Roosevelt Rule’ – that the primary geopolitical interest of the US is that no hegemon emerges on the Eurasian landmass, owing to the risks to the Western hemisphere – seems to be in play here, setting a notably realist base for Democrat policy. The second reason is more values-based: China is anti-democratic and seeks to reshape the international order to suit its own interests and way of governing, as the 2022 National Security Strategy notes. Ian Bremmer suggests that President Biden and Vice-President Harris approach this from different perspectives: for Biden, the key concern is the contest between democracies and autocracies, whereas for Harris, it is adherence to international norms and the upholding of a rules-based order. For the Democrats, the US must still cooperate with other nations to counter China, whatever their democratic credentials, and with China itself, to resolve shared global challenges. The idealism of the 20th century appears to have given away to a more pragmatic mindset: the Democratic administration does “not, however, believe that governments and societies everywhere must be remade in America’s image for us to be secure.”  The Trump approach  The evidence of the 2016-2020 Trump presidency and the claims of Project 2025 leave no doubt that Donald Trump views China as a major threat to US national interests. The US Strategic Approach to China from 2020 emphasises the risks of Beijing’s predatory economic practices, intellectual property theft and exploitation of other nations through the agreements made under the One Belt, One Road initiative.  For Trump, the interests of the US ought to come first in any bilateral agreements, resulting in a transactional approach that some regard as bringing a cost-benefit analysis into every interaction. This had made Trump’s foreign policy approach an unpredictable one, with US-China relations deteriorating during his presidency and the risks of an escalating trade war if he is re-elected and tariffs are raised on both sides. Yet Trump has also praised Xi Jinping in a rally in Michigan, and whilst president, agreed a deal to export semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China which was later amended, perhaps due to national security considerations. What is certain is that Trump’s foreign policy approach to China will seek to prioritise at every turn what he views as the interests of the US.  A shared pragmatism  There is a shared degree of pragmatism in both the Republican and Democrat approaches to China that is likely to be transferred to US policy on a rising India. Both parties view the need to preserve the national interests of the US as essential: this is central to Trump’s approach, and notable in the willingness of the Democrats to work with countries that are not democracies to counter shared threats. This means criticism about India’s democratic credentials from within the US will not wholly determine the nature of the US-India relationship under the Democrats.   The trade relations between the US, India and China add important context here. In the 2023-24 year, India had a trade surplus of c.$37 billion with the US, and a trade deficit of $85 billion with China. The US has a trade deficit of $185 billion with China between January and August 2024. Whilst it is unlikely that either India or the US will decouple from China entirely in the next five years, a Trump presidency in particular may seek to deepen the US-India trading relationship to reduce the US’s dependence on China. A recent joint paper from the Takshashila Institute and the Hudson Institute highlights the potential for economic cooperation between the US and India on emerging technology, especially keeping in mind the threat China poses to both countries’ national security interests.  The manner of India’s rise  The manner of India’s rise will be of interest to both Republicans and Democrats in this context, given the nuances of their foreign policy approaches to China. Were Trump to adopt something like the Roosevelt Rule – as Hulsman argues the Republicans ought to do – then the US-India relationship may sour going forward if the US sees India as the ‘next China’, asserting its military might and engaging in predatory economic behaviour. This is unlikely in practice: as Tim Marshall has identified, China’s military expansion owes itself to geographical barriers in the territorial waters of the South China Sea that simply do not apply to India. Moreover, the idea of India as a vishwa guru (‘world teacher’) seems to prioritise sharing cultural values, resources and technology to benefit both India and the world, rather than the hegemony represented by contemporary China. As William Dalrymple charts in his recent book The Golden Road, this was precisely the role of the Indian subcontinent in the first millennium CE, as it interacted with Southeast Asia, China and the Roman world.  The Democrats under Vice-President Harris will be more concerned about how a rising India situates itself within the rules-based international order created in the aftermath of World War II.

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Why India is a Critical Geopolitical Partner for the United States

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Author: Shruti kapil, researcher – Security and mutual dependence desk. Over the past decade, the United States and India, the world’s two largest democracies, have forged a strategic partnership shaped by shifting global dynamics. India’s increasing significance in United States foreign policy can be attributed to three key factors: its emergence as one of the fastest-growing economies, positioning itself as a leader of the Global South; the expanding influence of China in the region; and the shared democratic values that unite the world’s largest and oldest democracies. India and the United States have a comprehensive global strategic partnership, and this relationship will continue to receive bipartisan support whatever the outcome of next week’s election.  Historical context     The India-US relationship has seen it all – the good, bad and ugly. The Cold War era had strategic divergences between the two countries. The 1971 India-Pakistan war had a significant impact on India-US relations because, despite the evidence of atrocities committed by the Pakistani Army against its own citizens in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), the Nixon administration supported Islamabad.    This led India to forge even closer ties with the Soviet Union, which culminated in a 20-year Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. The relationship hit a new low when the US imposed sanctions on India after its 1998 nuclear tests. However, as the new millennium approached, the relationship between the two countries began to shift, gradually changing course amid the ever-shifting tides of geopolitics.    In 2016 the US designated India as a “major defence partner”. This relationship has deepened with the 2+2 dialogues that began in 2018, and several defence agreements signed including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020 which facilitates the exchange of geospatial intelligence. These agreements have established a foundation for defence cooperation, further strengthened by joint military exercises and intelligence sharing. India and the US have evolved significantly, transforming from estranged democracies into comprehensive strategic partners.     India’s growing economic power  In 2023, India overtook China as the most populous country in the world. China had its first negative population growth in 60 years while India is growing at 1%. A generation from now India’s working population is expected to be 50 percent larger than China’s. India’s demographic profile is of a young, tech-savvy, English-speaking workforce and with a strong work ethic. China has an ageing population like the US and that poses challenges to its economic and social structures. According to the IMF, China will grow at 3-4% while India will grow at 6-7%. Overall, India’s growth prospects look positive for the next 10-15 years.  With the world’s largest population, the fourth largest stock market, the highest growth rate among large countries, substantial foreign investment inflows, the rise of start-ups, key player in global AI ecosystem and digital India initiatives, India is expected to grow dramatically during the next 30 years. Also, as the world’s largest democracy, India offers greater stability, unlike its authoritarian neighbour. This stability is a distinct advantage for India which the US highly values.  The economic triangle of India, China and the US encompasses multiple facets – trade, investment and strategic concerns. In 2022, U.S.-India trade reached $191 billion, nearly double the level of 2014. The US was India’s largest trading partner in 2021-22 and 2022-23 and has been the primary source of FDI for the second year in a row. The trade dynamics show a $37 billion trade surplus in India’s favour, mostly due to the progress in areas of technology and manufacturing.   When it comes to the India-China economic relationship, imports from China have continued to grow unabated. In 2023, China overtook the US to become India’s number one trading partner. The situation has resulted in a trade deficit of $85 billion for India, meaning India is heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Similarly, in 2022, the US trade deficit in goods and services with China reached $367 billion, marking the highest deficit in all its bilateral trade relationships. The India-US economic ties are a strategic alternative to India’s dependence on Chinese imports, as the US is also trying to reduce its dependence on China. India can play an important geopolitical role for the US by providing an opportunity to de-risk from China’s manufacturing sector. India’s ability to balance relations with both China and the United States will be critical to its long-term economic independence and position on the global stage.   Rising Chinese influence in Indo-Pacific   The Indo-Pacific is of immense strategic importance because of its critical sea trade routes which connect the Middle East, Africa and East Asia to Europe and the US. The Indo-Pacific region, spanning from India to the western Pacific, is inhabited by over 3.5 billion people and has a combined GDP exceeding $20 trillion. These routes facilitate most of the world’s oil trade and a third of global trade. There are choke points along this route that if blocked could disrupt the global economy. Moreover, this region has three of the world’s biggest economies—China, India and Japan—and seven of the largest militaries.  India’s 9000 miles of land borders limit cross-border trade due to political, security, and difficult terrain issues. This makes the Indian Ocean region crucial as a key driver of India’s future economic growth. The importance of the Indian Ocean Region to India is multifaceted: geography, energy, trade routes, natural resources, sea lines of communication, security concerns and regional geopolitics. Given these factors, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made the Indian Ocean Region a priority which is evident from India’s maritime initiative—Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR).  China’s aggressive expansionism poses a serious challenge to India, stretched to both land and maritime domains in the Indo-Pacific region.  China’s territorial ambitions have led to regional instability, directly impacting India’s interests—from the contested border and the violent 2020 clashes between Indian and Chinese forces to Beijing’s claims over Arunachal Pradesh and encroachments into Bhutan and Nepal. And China’s

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Navigating US-India Relations in the Context of the 2024 Elections: Trump vs. Harris

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Author: Chloe Schuber, Research & Operations Assistant : Strengthening Democracy Desk As the 2024 US presidential election nears, US-India relations stand at a critical juncture, shaped by global events and the divergent foreign policy approaches of the candidates. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris offer sharply contrasting visions for this key partnership. Trump’s strategy centres on defence and protectionism, while Harris appears to prioritise broader collaboration in areas like climate change, technology, and multilateral diplomacy. With China’s growing assertiveness in the region, the direction of US-India relations in the coming years will be crucial. Donald Trump and India: Strategic Gains, Economic Tensions During his presidency (2017–2021), Donald Trump deepened US-India relations, anchored in his personal camaraderie with Prime Minister Modi. This connection was highlighted by high-profile events such as the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston (2019) – organised by the US Indian diaspora – and the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad (2020). These gatherings showcased a key mutual strategic alignment focused on countering China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific, and strengthening defence ties, economic cooperation, and regional security partnerships. Under Trump’s administration, US-India relations saw substantial progress in defence and security cooperation. Major defence deals and enhanced intelligence-sharing agreements positioned India as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific. This collaboration was institutionalised through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia. India’s strategic importance in this alliance, aimed at balancing China’s military and economic influence, became central. As Trump campaigns for a return to the White House in 2024, his approach to US-India relations is likely to be shaped by the “Project 2025” initiative, which emphasises countering China’s influence as a one of its key strategic objectives. Defence cooperation would remain a central pillar, building on previous achievements such as enhanced arms sales, intelligence sharing, and agreements like COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement). This cooperation is particularly significant as it represents a shift away from India’s historical dependence on Russian military hardware, appearing to bring it closer to Western strategic interests whilst serving India’s goals of multi-alignment. However, Trump’s “America First” economic policies could again create tensions, particularly in sectors like high-tech and pharmaceuticals. His previous actions, such as imposing tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium and removing India from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programme, led to trade frictions. A second Trump administration might continue to push for greater market access and address trade imbalances, potentially leading to renewed economic challenges in the bilateral relationship. Kamala Harris: Potential for Re-Engagement Kamala Harris’s historic rise as the first female Vice-President of the US, with her Indian ancestry, initially generated enthusiasm in India. However, her personal heritage has not translated into significant diplomatic engagement with India. Harris has focused largely on domestic issues, leaving foreign policy, including US-India relations, to other officials within the Biden administration. A key moment of tension came in 2019, when Harris made remarks on the sensitive issue of Kashmir. She voiced concerns over India’s actions following the revocation of Article 370, stating, “We have to remind Kashmiris they are not alone in the world. We are watching.” This was viewed in India as undue criticism of the government’s domestic policies, which sparked backlash given the country’s sensitivity to foreign commentary on Kashmir. Her comments, while reflective of broader Democratic concerns around human rights and democracy, were seen as lacking in constructive engagement with India on this complex issue. Despite this friction, Harris’s remarks are unlikely to be a dealbreaker. US-India relations are driven by shared strategic interests—particularly in defence, technology, and trade—so while her comments were poorly received, they have not fundamentally altered the overall trajectory of the partnership. Climate Change as a Pillar of Future Cooperation Climate change is emerging as one of the most critical areas for US-India cooperation. For Harris, whose platform prioritises environmental sustainability, climate action could be a cornerstone of her foreign policy, especially in relation to India. Both countries are committed to global frameworks such as the Paris Agreement, and their shared goals in renewable energy present opportunities for deeper cooperation. Whilst both countries are part of the top three largest emitter of greenhouse gases (with the US often ranking first) is also, India is striving to transition to clean energy, aiming to generate 50% of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. The US could play a pivotal role in supporting this transition through technological partnerships, investment in green infrastructure, and clean energy technology transfer. Collaborations in solar power, wind energy, and electric vehicles would not only help India meet its renewable energy goals but also create new market opportunities for US companies. For India, like the US, climate change is more than an environmental issue; it is also a matter of national security. Rising temperatures, unpredictable monsoons, and extreme weather events threaten India’s agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure. US-India cooperation on climate resilience, particularly in areas like water management and sustainable agriculture, could mitigate these risks. In contrast, Trump’s past downplaying of climate change and his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement suggest that environmental cooperation would not be a priority in a second Trump administration. However, given the economic potential of the green energy sector, even Trump may recognise the value of engaging with India on clean energy projects, particularly as India looks to diversify its energy sources. The Strategic Importance of China Beyond climate change, US-India relations will continue to be shaped by strategic concerns, particularly regarding China. US-China tensions have become a bipartisan issue with both Trump and Harris acknowledging China as a significant geopolitical competitor. As a result, any future US-India partnership will need to effectively navigate this complex geopolitical landscape. A second Trump term would likely maintain a strong focus on this challenge, while Harris, though less directly involved with India to date, would also need to prioritize defense and security cooperation in response to China’s growing assertiveness. Conclusion: Shaping a Multi-Faceted Partnership The 2024 US presidential election offers two different approaches to US-India

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Jammu & Kashmir elections: A demonstration of India’s democratic spirit

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Author: Shruti kapil, researcher – Security and mutual dependence desk. October 8 was a watershed moment for Jammu and Kashmir as the election results were announced following six years of direct rule from Delhi. A week later, on October 13, the President’s Rule was revoked, enabling formation of government elected by the people of J&K. The three-phase election was held from September 18 to October 1, and 90 assembly members were elected. This was the first election in a decade and came after the historic abrogation of Article 370, which led to a drastic shift in the political landscape of the region.  Exit polls had predicted a hung assembly and independent candidates making a significant impact. However, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and Indian National Congress (INC) achieved a majority and crossed the halfway mark. Independent candidates failed to make a mark in these elections.  Omar Abdullah, the president of the National Conference, was sworn in as the Chief Minister (CM) of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir on October 16th in Srinagar. He has served as a CM of Jammu and Kashmir from 2009 to 2014. However, this is a new beginning, as Jammu and Kashmir is now a Union Territory with limited powers of the new CM.  The Election Commission recorded a 63% overall turnout in the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir elections, with 64% male, 63% female, and 38% third gender. While this is a big jump from the 58% in this year’s Assembly elections, it is still below the 65% in the 2014 elections, which shows a slight decline in voting over the last decade, but overall participation remains robust.  In the 2014 Jammu & Kashmir elections, only 28 women contested out of 831 candidates across 87 seats. In 2024, 44 women are in the fray out of 908 nominations, a 57% increase. While progress is slow, it’s steady. In these elections, three women have won—Shagun Parihar from the BJP and Sakina Itoo and Shamima Firdous from the JKNC—highlighting a growing, if gradual, presence of women in J&K politics.  Figure 1: 2024 J&K assembly elections party-wise results. Data sourced from the Election Commission of India (ECI) website.  Figure 2: 2014 and 2024 J&K Assembly elections party-wise results. Source: ECI  Above in figures 1 and 2 are tables depicting how each party performed in this year’s election compared to the 2014 elections. While direct comparison is difficult due to delimitation changes that changed the constituency boundaries and voter distribution, the data gives a broader view of how national and regional parties performed in these two electoral cycles.   Figure 3: Vote share of major parties in J&K Assembly elections from 1996 to 2024. Source: ECI.  The graph above shows how the vote share of major parties in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections has shifted from 1996 to 2024. BJP is steadily increasing its vote share. Though BJP secured 25% of the votes and JKNC 23%, JKNC has won more seats. This reflects a curious imbalance in the electoral outcome.    This anomaly is because of the ‘first-past-the-post’ (FPTP) system like in the UK, where the candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins the seat regardless of overall vote share. This often leads to odd results where a party with fewer total votes can win more seats, leaving voters questioning if the outcome truly reflects the will of the people.  For instance, in the 2014 J&K elections, the BJP contested 33 seats in Kashmir and received 2.5% of the votes. In 2024, they reduced their candidates to 19 and secured 5.8% of the votes but failed to win a single seat. This raises questions if the FPTP system is accurately translating voter preferences into political representation, as a party’s growing popularity may not translate into actual power— leaving room to question how well the system reflects the people’s true choices.  The 2024 J&K elections revealed sharp regional divisions. JKNC won 35 of 47 seats in Muslim majority Kashmir, and the BJP won 29 of 43 seats in Hindu majority Jammu.   The regional political priorities were contrasting—Kashmir was focused on the restoration of Article 370 while Jammu was focused on security and the fight against cross-border terrorism. Jammu was relatively peaceful, but in the last few years, it has seen a rise in militant attacks as insurgents have shifted their focus to Jammu after the abrogation of Article 370. Despite these threats, voter turnout in Jammu was strong, indicating the region’s resolve in the face of challenges to stability. No major violence was reported, which is a noteworthy change from 170 violent incidents recorded in the 2014 elections.  Another noteworthy change was extremists and separatists embracing the democratic process. They not only voted but also contested the elections. While this signals progress as those who boycotted elections are now participating in the democratic process, it also raises concerns. The inclusion of separatist elements in the mainstream can amplify their ideology and challenge the Indian state’s efforts to maintain peace and stability in Jammu and Kashmir.   Early signs are positive. Candidates linked to banned Jamaat-e-Islami and similar ideologies received minimal support in these elections, indicating the electorate is moving away from extremism and towards peace and development.  International observers should be clear: the road ahead for Jammu and Kashmir is unchartered and challenging. As a Union Territory, there are two authorities in charge: the Omar Abdullah-led state government, in charge of state affairs, and the Lieutenant Governor, in charge of public order, law enforcement, and bureaucracy. The differing views of these two governments further complicate the situation and may lead to governance challenges that can affect the functioning of the state.  The new government in J&K faces a daunting task to deliver on its promise of restoring Article 370, an issue closely tied to the Kashmiri identity. Restoration of Article 370 was the main agenda of most regional parties in the election campaign, as it resonates deeply with a section of the Muslim electorate. However, the

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The Citizens’ Jury on Assisted Dying – How Not to Do Deliberative Democracy 

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Author: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk Have we found the solution to navigating assisted dying in England? The recent citizens’ jury on assisted dying, organised by the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, would appear to suggest so. Yet, research suggests that though a welcome innovation, the jury instead shows us how not to do deliberative democracy. This is down to the lack of a pathway to influence Government, the limited public awareness of the process and its small scale. This apparent failure should not put us off, but instead encourage further experiments on new ways to do democracy.  What are citizens’ juries?  A citizens’ jury is a three-stage process in which a randomly selected group of citizens comes together to learn about an issue, deliberate upon it and produce recommendations for policymakers. It is usually regarded as a smaller version of a citizens’ assembly, following the same process in a shorter time and with fewer participants. Citizens’ juries are examples of deliberative and participatory democracy: they rely on directly bringing citizens into the policy process to come to reasoned conclusions.  What did this citizens’ jury decide?  The jury members agreed that the law should change to permit assisted dying in England where adults with decision-making capacity are terminally ill. This could be either through physician-assisted suicide or voluntary euthanasia. This follows the introduction of a Private Members’ Bill on assisted dying into the House of Lords, and a similar Bill into the Scottish Parliament. The Lords’ Bill is expected to be withdrawn, as a Bill is to be introduced into the House of Commons on 16 October 2024.  Best practice: the Irish case  The best example of a deliberative exercise on a morally controversial issue is the Ireland Citizens’ Assembly on abortion, which took place between 2016 and 2018. 99 randomly selected citizens came together as an independent body established by the Irish Parliament for five structured weekends, at the end of which they produced a series of recommendations. Each weekend featured expert presentations and the consideration of submissions from members of the public, followed by structured roundtable discussions on specific issues. A committee of both chambers of the Irish Parliament considered the assembly’s recommendations to replace the constitutional ban on abortion with a provision allowing Parliament to legislate on the matter. The proposal was approved by Parliament, and then the people in a referendum on 25 May 2018. The evidence sessions were broadcast to the public, providing objective information for the referendum vote and creating wide awareness of the assembly process.  The Jersey case: success closer to home  Deliberative democracy has already been tried in the UK on the matter of assisted dying. In 2021, a citizen’s jury met in Jersey to provide its legislators with a detailed community response to the medical, ethical, legal and regulatory issues involved in permitting assisted dying. Following ten sessions of learning and deliberation, each lasting between 2 and 2.5 hours, the citizens’ jury recommended that assisted dying be permitted for Jersey residents aged 18 or over with a terminal illness or who were experiencing unbearable suffering. The citizens’ jury discussed a series of safeguards for the process, including a pre-approval process, the necessary involvement of medical professionals and the rights of those professionals to be conscientious objectors to the procedure. Two months’ later, Jersey’s legislature (the States Assembly) approved the availability of ‘assisted dying’ in principle. A Bill to allow assisted dying is now being drafted.  What went wrong in England?  Since both the Ireland citizens’ assembly and the citizens’ jury in Jersey were successful in both driving change and meaningfully engaging citizens, it seems logical to repeat the exercise in England, as the Nuffield Council on Bioethics did. Despite this, there are three design issues with the citizens’ jury that reduce its effectiveness and legitimacy:  No clear pathway for the jury’s recommendations to influence Parliament.  Where citizens’ juries are set up by institutions external to the official decision-making process, there is no guarantee that decision-makers will consider the jury’s recommendations, still less that they will follow them. The most successful citizens’ juries in the UK have been initiated by local councils which have then directly implemented the recommendations.  Limited public awareness of the process.  A crucial factor in both the Irish case and the citizens’ jury in Jersey was the public awareness around the process. This occurred through making the learning sessions of the deliberative process publicly available. In Jersey, moreover, the citizens’ jury followed an e-petition and an online public survey. Yet in England, only the results of the jury have been covered in the media, with seemingly little public information on the topics and experts who presented. It is difficult to view it as a genuinely ‘national’ conversation.  The scale of the citizens’ jury was perhaps too small.  The citizens’ jury on assisted dying in England had 30 participants. This is slightly bigger than Jersey’s citizens’ jury, but a third of the size of Ireland’s citizens’ assembly. Even though the 30 participants were randomly selected by an objectively fair algorithm, many might doubt that there were enough participants to genuinely represent the views of over 55m people.   The need for further experiments  No process of experimentation or innovation has a 100% success rate; partial successes and errors are valuable in pointing in the right direction. The citizens’ jury on assisted dying in England plays a role like this, identifying some pitfalls to avoid as the country mulls over this complex issue. Yet there is enough evidence from elsewhere in the world to suggest we are barking up the right tree. Further deliberative exercises taking into account some of the issues raised here will benefit us, not only in resolving the issue of assisted dying but in crafting a more effective British democracy. 

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Should India’s ‘One Nation’ have One Election? 

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Author: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk How do you conduct elections in the world’s largest democracy? A new proposal by the Indian Government, called ‘One Nation, One Election’ says, “all at once”. Indian elections today are like a feast with an endless number of courses, coming one after the other. The ‘One Nation, One Election’ scheme initially aims to synchronise national and state elections to a fixed period every 5 years. Though it will certainly make elections more efficient, the proposals raise questions about whether local issues will be sidelined and the accountability of state legislators to their constituents.  What will it involve?  Elections for the Lok Sabha (the lower house of the national parliament) and the Vidhan Sabha (state legislatures) occur every five years, but not at the same time. Following the 2024 General Election, there will be state elections in Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand before the year is out. The ‘One Nation, One Election’ scheme would synchronise all state and national elections across the country initially; a proposed second phase would also synchronise some municipal elections, though some local bodies have different term lengths.  Fewer elections, more governance  India’s elections are some of the costliest in the world, not least because of their size and scale: for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Finance Ministry requested an additional Rs 3,147.92 crore (around £282m) for election-related expenses, and Rs 73.67 crore (around £6.6m) to cover the Election Commission of India’s administration costs. The report of the High-Level Committee on ‘One Nation, One Election’ claims the cost of holding Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections in the current format is Rs 4,500 crore (around £402m). It did not indicate how much might be saved through simultaneous elections, though identifies scope for savings on administrative expenses, transporting voting machines and re-deploying people from other jobs to assist with election conduct. This should be welcomed as long as election integrity is not compromised.  When elections take place in India, governance stops. This is because of the Model Code of Conduct, a set of rules governing what parties, candidates and incumbent governments can and cannot do. It ensures incumbents cannot use the state’s power to unduly influence voters during the campaign, a necessity in a country where welfare schemes are crucial to politics at all levels. The Code prohibits new financial grants, the initiation of new projects, promises to construct roads and even the provision of drinking water facilities. Ongoing welfare projects can continue only if work has already started. Other projects, including some forms of emergency relief, require the Election Commission’s permission to proceed. Several political parties (both national and regional ones) reported to the High-Level Committee that many days of governance were lost because of the frequent imposition of the Code, with a reported 307 days lost in Maharashtra between 2016 and 2017. Although the Code is a necessary safeguard, streamlining its imposition can safeguard democracy and ensure the conditions for local growth.  National issues may dominate over local ones  Some critics see the proposal for simultaneous elections as a threat to India’s federal system. However, India’s central Election Commission holds responsibility for Vidhan Sabha elections, and none of the proposals made affect states’ powers or the status of their legislatures. There are questions whether synchronising elections will sideline local issues in favour of national ones. The High-Level Committee itself reports that in 24 out of 31 previous instances of simultaneous elections between 1989 and 2014, the major parties had similar polling numbers in the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha. This trend continued in 2024: the Bharatiya Janata Party and the state incumbent Biju Janata Dal returned similar numbers in both the national and state elections in Odisha, whilst the Telugu Desam Party came out on top in Andhra Pradesh in both votes. The 2024 UK local elections show how national and international issues – here, the Israel-Palestine conflict – can shape local politics in some areas. In campaigning for the Haryana state elections, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath sought to garner votes for the BJP by focusing on the revocation of Art 370 in Jammu & Kashmir and the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, despite neither of these relating to local issues. Simultaneous elections will only worsen this state of affairs.  Fixed-term parliaments risk deadlock and disempowerment  Simultaneous elections also require the parliamentary term to be fixed at no more – and crucially no less (in ordinary circumstances) – than five years. State legislatures can lodge a Vote of No Confidence in their governments if they do not hit the mark. If this passes on a simple majority, the Governor must invite the second-largest party to form a new government. Although a Vidhan Sabha can be dissolved mid-term, this would not ‘reset the clock’ under the new proposals: the newly elected legislature would sit only until the next simultaneous election period. With an inevitable election at fixed intervals and coalition government the norm, the incentive for an early election to seek a fresh mandate from the people will vanish – instead, there will be more ‘horse trading’ within the legislature if coalitions break down, where parties might compromise on their manifesto commitments. This disempowers voters, who will likely lose the opportunity to influence their representatives during the five-year term, making accountability more challenging. It can also lead to policy deadlock: where coalitions shift, some policies can get stuck, and it may be difficult for governments to find a majority for others, as happened to the UK during the infamous Brexit deadlock of 2017-2019 under its own (now abolished) fixed-term parliamentary system.  Where do we go from here?  Efforts to ensure the efficiency of Indian elections should be encouraged, given their vast scale. Whilst the ‘One Nation, One Election’ proposals as they stand do raise issues for local politics and accountability, careful design can ensure that simultaneous elections can go ahead. First, policymakers must consider how to strengthen local party politics and

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The Future of the Anglican Church: A Schism on the Horizon?

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Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director As Christianity shifts its centre of gravity from the West to the Global South, particularly Africa, tensions within the Anglican Church are becoming more pronounced. Philip Jenkins’ The Next Christendom explores the rise of Christianity in regions like Africa, where it is not only growing numerically but also reshaping the theological landscape. This shift is already creating fractures within the Anglican Communion, as conservative African churches and their more liberal counterparts in the UK clash over key issues such as same-sex marriage, gender identity, women bishops, and abortion. Rising Tensions Between African and UK Anglican Churches The Anglican Church in the UK has embraced a progressive stance on many social issues, aligning with the broader secular culture. Policies like the acceptance of same-sex marriage, the ordination of women as bishops, and greater inclusivity of LGBTQ+ individuals reflect a rapidly liberalizing Church. However, these changes are being met with growing resistance from Anglican churches in Africa, where Christian teachings are interpreted much more conservatively. In African countries like Nigeria, Uganda, and Kenya, Anglican churches are increasingly vocal in their opposition to these liberal changes. They argue that , while the UK Church is drifting into heresy. As a result, conservative factions within the UK are finding solace in the African Anglican churches, which they see as the new standard-bearers of Christian truth. These conservative UK Anglicans, disillusioned with the liberal direction of their own Church, are turning to Africa for guidance and theological refuge. The growing influence of African Anglicanism is not just a theological shift but a cultural one. African churches, with their emphasis on more traditional family values, are becoming a powerful counterbalance to the liberal trends in Western Christianity. This shift is poised to influence not only the future of the Anglican Communion but also the political and social landscape in the UK, where religious values continue to shape voter preferences and public policy. African Anglican leaders threaten split from Church of England over same-sex union blessing Pentecostal Influence and Syncretism in African Churches However, the conservative African Anglican churches are not merely a mirror image of their UK counterparts. They carry with them a strong Pentecostal flavour, characterised by vibrant, emotionally charged worship styles that can seem foreign to more restrained Western congregations. Moreover, many African churches incorporate elements of animist traditions, including healing rituals and a focus on spiritual warfare, remnants of pre-Christian belief systems. This syncretism, while common in African contexts, is often viewed with discomfort by European Christians, who are more accustomed to a clear separation between Christianity and indigenous belief systems. Despite these differences, the growing influence of African Anglicanism is undeniable. As UK conservatives increasingly align themselves with African churches, this theological and cultural fusion will shape the future of the Anglican Communion. Political Implications in the UK As the Anglican Church’s centre of gravity shifts towards Africa, the conservative values of African Anglicanism—opposition to same-sex marriage, gender fluidity, and liberal bioethics—will become more prominent within the Anglican community in the UK. These values are likely to influence the political and social landscape in the UK, as religious groups often play a critical role in shaping voter behaviour and public policy. For example, UK politicians seeking the support of conservative Christian voters may find themselves pressured to adopt positions more in line with African Anglican values. This could lead to a reemphasis on traditional family structures, a renewed focus on religious freedom, and a pushback against progressive social policies. As African churches gain influence within the global Anglican Communion, their conservative stance on social issues may drive political changes in the UK. Conservatives find home at African churches. Christianity in India: Syncretism and the Risk of Absorption India presents a different but equally complex picture of how Christianity is evolving. With its long history of religious plurality, India is home to a rich tapestry of faith traditions, including Christianity. The faith has existed in India since the arrival of St. Thomas in the first century, and today, India’s Christian population is growing, especially in the southern and northeastern states. Like Africa, Christianity in India often blends with local religious traditions. In many cases, Christian worship incorporates elements of Hindu traditions, such as the use of oil lamps, flowers, and incense. This syncretism reflects the adaptability of Christianity in India’s diverse religious landscape, but it also raises concerns among Western clergy. Many Western Anglican leaders worry that if Christianity in India becomes too syncretic, it risks being absorbed into the wider Hindu pantheon, potentially becoming yet another Hindu sect rather than maintaining a distinct religious identity. These concerns stem from the fear that if clear boundaries are not drawn, Christianity will lose its doctrinal purity and autonomy in the Indian religious context. Western clergy often argue that without these boundaries, Christianity in India could be diluted to the point where it is indistinguishable from the surrounding religious milieu. However, this insistence on maintaining clear boundaries creates tensions between communities that might otherwise coexist peacefully. In regions where religious syncretism is a natural part of the cultural fabric, imposing rigid distinctions between Christianity and Hindu traditions could lead to social fragmentation. Communities that have traditionally found common ground through shared religious practices may be forced into a more divisive dynamic, as efforts to maintain Christian distinctiveness disrupt local traditions. To allow syncretism or not to allow: for that is the question. A Dilemma for the Church: Boundary Drawing vs. Natural Integration The Church faces a dilemma: by drawing clear theological boundaries, it risks fostering division and increasing tension in pluralistic societies like India. On the other hand, allowing Christianity to evolve more naturally in these contexts, embracing syncretism where it arises, may lead to greater harmony between religious communities but at the cost of doctrinal clarity. Some argue that the Church’s efforts to impose stricter boundaries may actually cause the very tensions it seeks to avoid. By allowing Christianity in India to unfold organically, the faith could

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Citizens’ assemblies: miracle cure, or much ado about nothing? 

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Author: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk Is British democracy working? Surveys show that satisfaction with democracy in the UK has nosedived since 2021. This should not be surprising: in our system of ‘popular rule’, all we do is cast votes every few years, with no way to intervene as our basic public services continue to struggle. What if we put the people back into the process of running our country, to make government more responsive to popular concerns? Citizens’ assemblies are one way of doing this. Ongoing research at the International Centre for Sustainability suggests that we should make more use of them in the UK: they can cut through thorny moral issues, provide objective information to the public and show consensus. Yet being difficult to get right, they are no miracle cure.  Why get the public involved in the first place?  Citizens’ assemblies bring together a randomly selected sample of citizens to learn about an issue, deliberate on it and make recommendations. Some believe they can “work wonders” and restore trust in politics. By bringing citizens into the political process, citizens’ assemblies can give people the skills and desire to participate more, making them more invested in how our society is run. They enable us to give direction to our representatives on key issues and review what they do for us, without being dragged into party politics. For those who say that this simply isn’t how we do democracy in the UK, we should look beyond our borders: India, for example, has a long-standing tradition of citizen deliberation at village level, through a rural assembly called a gram sabha.  What are the benefits of citizens’ assemblies?  There are four good reasons to use citizens’ assemblies:  They can help to resolve morally controversial issues.  They can provide an objective information base for public votes.  They can help to articulate consensus for major changes.  They can be used at local levels to drive regeneration projects.  This is shown from experience within and outside the UK. In Ireland, a citizens’ assembly was used to recommend the removal of constitutional provisions prohibiting abortion. More recently, an assembly in Jersey on assisted dying made recommendations that are now being translated into law. This is especially relevant to the rest of the UK, with Bills recently introduced into the Scottish Parliament and the House of Lords on the matter. Parts of the Irish Assembly were broadcast live, giving the public vital information for their vote in a 2018 referendum on the matter – a far cry from the UK’s experience with Brexit in 2016. The Irish example also shows how citizens’ assemblies can articulate a social consensus out of a public desire for reform – an encouraging sign for issues such as House of Lords reform. The citizens’ assembly model has also been successfully transposed into local contexts (often termed a ‘citizens’ jury’), with deliberative exercises in Romsey (2018) and Newham (2021) shaping local policy on town centre usage and developing green spaces respectively.  Where have citizens’ assemblies not worked?  The worldwide practice of citizens’ assemblies demonstrates three potential issues:  A remit that is too broad.  No clear pathway to influence elected politicians.  Self-selection of those who are already politically engaged.  Our research has found that assemblies which tried to solve too many issues at once – such as the Climate Assembly UK (2020) and the French Citizens’ Convention on the Climate (2019-2020) – were much less successful because they produced general principles and wants rather than specific proposals. They have also been much more effective in influencing policy change when set up by local councils than by parliamentary select committees or external research organisations (such as in a recent citizens’ jury on assisted dying). Yet there is a balance to be struck: where government at all levels is involved, the experts who inform citizens must remain independent. Moreover, because there is no compulsion for invited citizens to actually participate, there is the risk of ‘self-selection’ of those who are already politically engaged or interested in an issue. Emerging technology – such as AI-facilitated online deliberation, as in Taiwan – could address some of these issues.  Why do we need them when we already have the UK Parliament?  Some might say that we don’t need innovation, because we already have a citizens’ assembly in the UK: it is just known as ‘the UK Parliament’. Yet the devil is in the details. A randomly selected sample of citizens, stratified for demographics, will be more representative than the House of Commons (especially considering the cost of parliamentary campaigns). There is no political party representation in a citizens’ assembly. The stakes are also different: the UK Parliament passing legislation creates a finality absent from the advisory – yet potentially powerful – recommendations of a citizens’ assembly. The ‘learning phase’ crucial to citizens’ assemblies, where subject-matter experts share important background information, has no parallel in the parliamentary process. The UK Parliament is undoubtedly an assembly of citizens, but a citizens’ assembly it is not.   The path to democratic reform  There is no doubt that there are other pressing issues to solve in British democracy – our disproportionate electoral system, a lack of effective checks and balances on government and the role of the House of Lords. These all need considered discussion, but that should not stop us from experimenting elsewhere. Citizens’ assemblies, if designed well, can cut through complexity, provide citizens with clear and objective information and crystallise consensus on policy at local, regional and national levels.   

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Landmark Elections in Jammu & Kashmir Begin: What’s at Stake and Why It Matters

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Author: Shruti kapil, researcher and mutual dependence desk. The ongoing assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) are not just another political event; they symbolise a turning point in the region’s history. Scheduled to take place in three phases on September 18th, September 25th, and October 1st, these elections are the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, marking several important changes. This will be the first election held in J&K as a Union Territory, the first without Ladakh, which is now a separate Union Territory, and the first following the completion of the delimitation process. The results, expected on October 8th, are poised to shape the region’s future, making this election especially critical.  Since Article 370 was revoked, J&K’s political landscape has experienced substantial shifts. The region lost its special status, which had granted autonomy with its own Constitution, property rights exclusive to “permanent residents,” and preferential rights in education and employment. Additionally, the state was split into two Union Territories—Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh—leading to structural changes that make the upcoming election a key moment to measure public sentiment in this new political environment.  One of the most impactful changes post-abrogation was the delimitation of electoral constituencies. Delimitation refers to the process of redrawing the boundaries of constituencies to ensure equal representation based on population. This process hadn’t taken place in J&K since 1995. The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act of 2019 mandated the creation of additional assembly seats, and as a result, seven new seats were added—six in Jammu and one in Kashmir—altering the political balance. This redistribution is expected to benefit Jammu, which many felt was historically underrepresented.  Despite criticism from regional parties, the delimitation process aims to ensure equal population representation in elections, reinforcing a key aspect of democracy.   Before 2019, J&K’s Assembly had 87 seats: 37 in Jammu, 46 in Kashmir, and 4 in Ladakh, with 24 seats reserved for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoJK) that remained vacant. Following the delimitation, the J&K Assembly now holds 90 seats—43 for Jammu and 47 for Kashmir—after Ladakh was removed. The redistribution is expected to significantly impact the power dynamics between the two regions.    With around 8.8 million eligible voters, including over 93,000 new voters, turnout is anticipated to be strong. The first phase of the assembly elections on September 18 concluded peacefully, recording a 61% turnout across 24 constituencies. Despite a recent surge in terror attacks, Jammu saw notably high participation, while South Kashmir, once known as a hotbed of militancy and previously prone to boycotts, showed up at the polls. Higher voter participation was observed compared to the 60% turnout in the first phase of the 2014 elections, building anticipation for the upcoming two phases.  Political parties in J&K are divided over Article 370. The National Conference (NC), led by Farooq and Omar Abdullah, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) under Mehbooba Mufti, both favour the restoration of Article 370 and statehood. These regional parties argue that the abrogation undermined J&K’s identity and autonomy. On the other side, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) champions the removal of Article 370, claiming it has integrated J&K more fully into India and brought positive changes in governance and development. The Indian National Congress (INC), aligned with NC, is silent on the abrogation. Newer entrants, such as the Apni Party focus on pragmatic governance, with their stances on Article 370 more nuanced.  The table above outlines the key political parties in Jammu and Kashmir, highlighting their stances on Article 370 and the main agendas featured in their manifestos.  This election will also see the Sikh community, traditionally underrepresented, fielding independent candidates for the first time, while former separatists and members of Jamaat-e-Islami*, who historically boycotted elections, are now participating, signalling a significant shift in local politics.   Economic development is a priority for most parties in this election. Despite achieving a 5.7% growth rate from 2014-2022, unemployment, especially among educated youth, is a major concern, with the rate standing at 18.3%, much higher than the national average of 8%. Infrastructure improvements, particularly in road connectivity and electricity, are also central issues, along with addressing agricultural challenges and the rising problem of drug abuse.   As these elections unfold, it remains to be seen how the electorate will respond to the changes that have reshaped their region. The absence of boycott calls, which were common during elections, and the overall improvement in law and order suggest that J&K is entering a new phase of political engagement. While many challenges remain, this election offers an opportunity for the people of Jammu and Kashmir to chart a course towards stability, prosperity, and lasting peace. * Jamaat-e-Islami, formed in the early 1950s, is a socio-political and religious group known for its separatist stance and history of electoral boycotts. It remains controversial and was banned by the Indian government for alleged links with the militant outfit Hizbul Mujahideen.  

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Navigating India’s Path to Unprecedented Growth: A Call to Visionary Leaders

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Navigating India’s Path to Unprecedented Growth: A Call to Visionary Leaders Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director India is in a hurry. This was the resounding message at a recent conference where leaders across industries gathered to discuss the nation’s future at the City of London’s Guildhall. As I listened to Adrian Cartwright, Senior Partner at Clifford Chance, and BVR Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog, India’s “Do Tank”, it became clear that India stands at a critical juncture in its development journey. The Journey from Low Income to Middle Income India is currently transitioning from a low-income country to a middle-income nation. However, this transition carries the risk of a “middle-income trap,” where economic progress stalls without significant reforms. To avoid this trap, India must aggressively reform its policy framework and invest heavily in capacity building—not just for its civil servants, but also for the public at large. The Imperative for Infrastructure Investment India’s infrastructure is the foundation upon which its future growth will be built. The Union government currently allocates 3.5% of GDP to infrastructure, with the States contributing an additional 3%. However, to achieve its ambitious goals and ensure sustainable growth, India needs to invest 10% of its GDP into infrastructure. This leaves a shortfall of at least 3.5%, which must be filled by international financiers. Historically, international investors have been cautious about investing in India, often citing regulatory hurdles and past negative experiences. However, the landscape is changing. The top two airports in India are now privately owned, serving as a testament to the potential for successful private investment. Mumbai, for instance, requires a staggering $150 billion in infrastructure investment, with $30-40 billion expected from the government and the remainder from private and international investors. India has at least 20 emerging cities that it needs to build – Delhi, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Karnavati (formerly Ahmedabad) are just to name a few. India’s megacities – this is Mumbai The Role of International Capital Return on Investment (RoI) is the key driver for international capital, and India must focus on minimising risks and providing incentives to attract this capital. Regulatory frameworks are evolving, but more needs to be done. The government needs to move towards monitoring frameworks rather than individual projects, a shift that could streamline processes and reduce bureaucratic delays. This is arguably still the number one challenge still facing international investors. Areas Ripe for Investment India’s infrastructure needs are vast and varied. The civil aviation sector, particularly airports, presents significant opportunities for investment. Road construction, metro projects, and the burgeoning green hydrogen industry are other areas where international capital can play a transformative role. However, perception and history remain barriers. There is a need for consistent messaging and a change in tone from senior government officials, who are now increasingly adopting a more commercial approach to governance. India must also work on marketing itself better to the global investment community, ensuring that its success stories are heard loud and clear. The Green Transition and Infrastructure Resilience As India charts its path towards net-zero emissions, every infrastructure project must be assessed through a net-zero framework. This green transition will inevitably have adverse effects on states reliant on coal, but it also opens new avenues for investment in renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure. A staggering 90% of India’s infrastructure is yet to be built, and 75% of urban infrastructure needs to be rebuilt. This presents a unique opportunity for visionary investors who can think beyond risk management to resilience—building infrastructure that can withstand the unknown challenges of the future. India’s new solar plants The Call to Action India’s growth story is far from complete. The nation still has a long way to go, but the opportunities for those willing to take the leap are immense. For the daring and entrepreneurial, now is the time to navigate and build the investment corridors that will make India’s potential a reality. The International Centre for Sustainability is committed to supporting this journey. Our mission is to build the knowledge, training, and policy centres that will enable India to achieve its ambitious goals. By fostering a deeper understanding of India’s development landscape and providing the tools necessary to navigate it, we aim to create an environment where visionary leaders can thrive and drive the next phase of India’s growth. India is ready. The question is, are we ready to jump in and help 20% of the world’s population?

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