Become A Member

Research Articles

Reflections on India’s New Budget

Blog, Research Articles /

Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director Can PM Modi’s government deliver what India needs? India faces significant long-term economic challenges that require substantial policy reforms to unlock its true potential. Despite being branded as “Modinomics,” the economic policies under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure have not deviated significantly from interventionist and socialist practices. This branding should be dropped from the popular lexicon, as it serves more as political marketing than an accurate representation of transformative economic policy. Real change necessitates a move towards promoting private enterprise, reducing regulatory burdens, and embracing market-driven solutions. The Reality Behind “Modinomics” The term “Modinomics” suggests a radical new economic strategy, but in reality, it masks the continuity of traditional policies. India’s economy remains heavily interventionist, with significant government control over key sectors. Despite rhetoric about economic liberalization, substantial reforms to foster private enterprise and reduce state intervention have been limited. For example, the recent budget, while avoiding overtly populist measures, still reflects an interventionist approach. The allocations to states like Andhra Pradesh and Bihar are framed as resource mobilization through multilateral development banks, yet they maintain central oversight and control. The fiscal deficit is set to reduce from 5.1% to 4.9%, bolstered by a significant $22 billion dividend from the RBI. While this is fiscally prudent, it is not indicative of a significant shift towards a market-driven economy. Positive Aspects of the Budget 1. Employment Generation Focus:  – With India’s official unemployment rate hovering around 7.8%, but in reality could be much higher, the budget’s emphasis on job creation is crucial. The announcement of schemes incentivising employers to hire more regular workers is a positive step. These measures acknowledge the urgent need for employment opportunities and align with sound economic principles. This becomes even more apparent when considering that India faces a young population that is largely unskilled and in many cases unemployable. The government has launched a variety of skills development programmes, as well as incentives for employers to employee low skilled workers and to train them through apprentice style programs.  10-12 million new job seekers enter into India’s job market per annum. 2. Agricultural Productivity and Natural Farming:  – Agriculture, which accounts for about 18% of India’s GDP and employs nearly 50% of the workforce, needs urgent reform. The budget’s focus on raising agricultural productivity through a review of the agricultural research establishment is noteworthy. Additionally, the expansion of the natural farming package to 10 million farmers could revolutionise the sector. Studies show that natural farming can increase farmers’ incomes by reducing input costs and improving soil health. 3. Urban Redevelopment:  – Recognising the importance of cities in driving economic growth, the budget proposes initiatives for urban redevelopment. India’s urban population is projected to reach 600 million by 2031, making urban planning crucial. Targeting 14 major cities for transit-oriented development, reducing stamp duties for women homeowners, and building housing for the urban poor and industrial workers are commendable steps. These initiatives can help address the urban housing deficit, which is estimated to be around 18.78 million units. The sheer scale of this makes the UK’s housing problem miniscule.  Missed Opportunities 1. Privatisation of Public Sector Enterprises:  – The budget could have set ambitious targets for privatising public sector enterprises, especially given their high market valuations. Public sector banks, for instance, have a combined market capitalisation of over $120 billion. Privatisation could enhance efficiency and reduce the fiscal burden, with proceeds potentially reducing the public debt to GDP ratio, which stands at around 84%. Of course there are many reasons why the government is reluctant to do this, as it gives politicians significant power to intervene and drive economic incentive schemes of their liking.  2. Asset Monetisation:  – There is a lack of a concrete plan for asset monetisation, which could convert underutilised government assets into productive use. The National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) targets raising $72 billion by monetising core assets, but this budget missed an opportunity to accelerate these efforts. Revenues from such initiatives could significantly reduce public debt and interest pay-outs, which consume nearly 40% of tax revenues. 3. Regulatory and Compliance Reforms:  – Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) continue to be burdened by regulatory and compliance requirements. The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index ranks India at 63rd out of 190 countries. A time-bound plan to reduce these burdens, along with finalising the long-pending labour codes, would have been highly beneficial. Simplifying the compliance landscape could help SMEs, which contribute about 30% to India’s GDP and employ over 110 million people. Reflections While the budget presents a long-term vision focused on employment generation and sustainable growth, India’s economic landscape still faces significant challenges. The country must address regulatory inefficiencies, promote privatisation, and streamline compliance to unlock its true potential. These reforms, though politically sensitive, are essential for India’s economic transformation. Only through such bold measures can India hope to sustain high growth rates and realise its latent potential.  India, although having arrived at an inflexion point, is still at a very nascent stage in its development. India is poised for significant economic growth over the next 25 years, driven by its demographic dividend, rapid urbanisation, and expanding middle class. By 2050, India is expected to become the world’s third-largest economy, with a GDP projected to reach $35 trillion, up from $3.5 trillion in 2023 (Goldman Sachs, 2023). Today these figures by Goldman look fanciful, but considering that even if India fails to make the reforms it so badly requires, it will nevertheless less reach $20 trillion in the worst case scenario. This will still make India a centre for economic, cultural, and military power. The country’s working-age population is set to peak at nearly 1 billion by 2050, providing a substantial labour force for economic activities (World Bank, 2023). Additionally, the rise of the middle class, expected to encompass 1 billion people by 2030, will drive consumer demand and investment (Brookings Institution, 2023).  What India ultimately lacks and so desperately requires is better politics. References: 1. “RBI Transfers

Reflections on India’s New Budget Read More »

The Cost of Democracy: A Critical Look at India’s Electoral Landscape

Blog, Research Articles /

Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director In the vibrant tapestry of India’s democracy, elections are the most vivid threads, woven with the hopes, aspirations, and voices of over a billion people. Yet, beneath the colorful surface lies a complex and often troubling reality. As we journey through the electoral landscape of India, we uncover the stark truths about the money spent on elections, the manipulation of religious and caste identities, the dismal engagement of women, and the overwhelming power concentrated in the hands of a few. The Price of Power: Money in Elections India’s elections are among the most expensive in the world. In the 2019 general elections, political parties spent an astounding $8.5 billion (₹60,000 crore), a figure that surpasses the GDP of several small countries. This expenditure dwarfs the amounts spent in other democracies. For comparison, the 2019 general election in the UK saw political parties spend approximately £113 million ($150 million). In Japan, the expenditure for the 2017 general election was around ¥67.1 billion ($650 million). These figures highlight the enormous financial scale of Indian elections, raising crucial questions about the integrity and inclusivity of the democratic process. In rural villages, the situation is even more alarming. Reports indicate that voters are often paid anywhere from ₹500 to ₹2000 (£5 to £20) for their votes, a practice that blatantly undermines the principles of democracy. This monetisation of votes not only corrupts the electoral process but also perpetuates a cycle of poverty and dependency. As a farmer from Uttar Pradesh candidly put it, “During elections, politicians come with money. But after they win, they disappear.” A controversy raged over how political parties raised the enormous amounts of money to fight the general elections in 2024. Dividing the Vote : Religion and Caste Religion and caste have long been potent forces in Indian politics. Politicians craftily exploit these identities to create loyal voter blocks. The use of religion in politics is not a new phenomenon, but its recent intensification is worrisome. Political parties often align themselves with religious groups, promising to protect their interests in exchange for votes. This not only polarises society but also distracts from pressing issues like education, healthcare, and employment. For instance, during the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) tenure under Sonia Gandhi’s leadership, there were several instances where religion was used to consolidate votes. The promotion of certain welfare schemes targeted specifically at minority communities was perceived by many as an attempt to secure a solid vote bank. Programs like the Sachar Committee Report and the 15-Point Program for minorities were seen as steps to win over Muslim voters, even as critics argued that these initiatives could exacerbate communal divides. Similarly, caste continues to be a critical factor in Indian elections. Despite legal safeguards, caste-based discrimination and violence persist. Politicians exploit these divisions, promising benefits to certain castes in return for their support. During the same UPA tenure, the Congress party often employed caste dynamics to its advantage. For example, in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the party made concerted efforts to appeal to Dalits and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) by promising reservations and other benefits, further entrenching caste loyalties. This cynical manipulation perpetuates caste hierarchies and hinders social progress. As a Dalit activist from Tamil Nadu remarked, “Caste is the curse of Indian politics. It’s the invisible hand that controls our votes.” The Gender Gap: Lack of Women Engagement Women, who constitute nearly half of India’s population, remain significantly underrepresented in politics. In the 2019 elections, only 14.3% of the candidates were women. This gender gap is starkly evident in the Lok Sabha, where women hold just 78 of the 543 seats. Why Are There So Few Women in Parliament? The reasons for the low representation of women in Indian politics are multifaceted. Societal norms and cultural barriers often discourage women from entering politics. Family responsibilities, societal expectations, and a lack of financial resources further hinder their political participation. According to a study by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), women candidates face significant challenges, including gender bias, threat of violence, and inadequate party support. Consequently, women’s issues, from maternal health to gender-based violence, often receive inadequate attention and are frequently side-lined in the political discourse. Violence against women remains a severe issue. According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), 371,503 cases of crimes against women were reported in 2020, an increase from previous years. This includes cases of domestic violence, sexual assault, and dowry-related violence. Shockingly, 87 rape cases are reported daily in India, highlighting the grim reality that women face across the country. Art to empower women. But India has a long way to go on gender related equality. The lack of education and awareness around women’s health is another significant issue. In rural India, maternal mortality rates remain alarmingly high. According to a report by the Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is 113 per 100,000 live births as of 2017-2019, with higher rates in rural areas. Women in rural regions often lack access to quality healthcare and education, exacerbating health issues and mortality rates. Education for girls also lags behind, with UNESCO reporting that 40% of adolescent girls aged 15-18 years are not attending school in India. This lack of meaningful education severely limits opportunities for women and perpetuates cycles of poverty and dependency. Power and Representation: The MP’s Dilemma In India, Members of Parliament (MPs) wield significant power. With constituencies averaging 2 million people, an MP’s role is both critical and challenging. This vast number makes genuine representation difficult, often resulting in a disconnect between MPs and their constituents. A citizen’s access to Justice Justice in India is expensive, time-consuming, and often inaccessible to the common man. Enforcing contracts or criminal law can be slow and cumbersome, with cases often dragging on for years. The World Bank’s “Doing Business” report ranks India 163rd out of 190 countries in contract enforcement, highlighting the inefficiency of the judicial system. The

The Cost of Democracy: A Critical Look at India’s Electoral Landscape Read More »

The Democratic Implications of the 2024 Labour Landslide

Blog, Research Articles /

Author: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk The 2024 General Election in the UK has brought an end to 14 years of Conservative government, ushering in a Labour regime with a landslide election victory. Of the 650 seats in the UK Parliament, the Labour Party has won 412, with the Conservatives on 121, and the Liberal Democrats on 71, on a turnout of 60%.[i] This represents the largest majority in the UK Parliament since the New Labour victory in 1997. However, the result has troubling implications both for the UK’s First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) electoral system and the prospects for reform, and will also shape the legitimacy of the new government’s major policy and constitutional reform proposals. FPTP and the 2024 General Election Results Under FPTP in the UK, Members of Parliament are elected in 650 single-member constituencies across the country. These are winner-takes-all contests: the candidate with the most votes will win the seat, even if they fall short of an overall majority. In the 2024 General Election, this has produced the following results: Party Seats Seat Share Votes Vote Share Votes per Seat Labour 412 63.4% 9,804,655 33.7% 23,798 Conservatives 121 18.6% 6,827,311 23.7% 56,424 Liberal Democrats 72 11.1% 3,519,199 12.2% 48,878 Scottish National Party (SNP) 9 1.4% 724,758 2.5% 80,529 Sinn Fein 7 1.1% 210,891 0.7% 30,127 Independent 6 0.9% 564,243 2.0% 94,041 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 5 0.8% 172,058 0.6% 34,412 Reform UK 5 0.8% 4,117,221 14.3% 823,444 Green Parties 4 0.6% 1,943,265 6.7% 485,816 Plaid Cymru 4 0.6% 194,811 0.7% 48,703 Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 2 0.3% 86,861 0.3% 43,431 Alliance Party 1 0.2% 117,191 0.4% 117,191 Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 1 0.2% 94,779 0.3% 94,779 Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) 1 0.2% 48,685 0.2% 48,685 Table 1: UK General Election Results 2024 The table above indicates some startling results. The total number of votes won by Labour is smaller than in the 2019 General Election by around half a million,[ii] yet this translated in 2024 to more than double the number of seats. Reform UK won the third-highest number of popular votes yet rank only joint seventh-highest (including the grouping of Independent MPs) in terms of seat share. Indeed, its vote share across the UK was higher than that of the Liberal Democrats, which won more than 14 times the number of seats. To gain any one seat, the Green Party needed over 20 times as many votes as Labour did for their respective seats, and Reform UK required almost 35 times as many votes. This indicates significant disparities in respect of the practical impact of individual votes under the current FPTP system in the UK. The data above verifies the pre-election predictions that this contest would produce one of the most disproportionate Parliaments in the history of the UK. FPTP has proven itself unsuitable to translating citizens’ preferences into legislative representation in what has become a genuine multi-party landscape. This reduces the extent to which the UK’s representative democratic system can be considered genuine popular self-government, the principle at the heart of modern democracy. Against this background, the case for reform is overwhelming. Alternatives to FPTP Amongst the alternatives, two forms of proportional representation emerge as potential candidates. The first is the nationwide system of proportional representation (PR) used in countries such as the Netherlands and Israel. Under this form of PR, the entire country acts as a ‘nationwide’ constituency, with seats in the legislature allocated in proportion to the number of votes cast for each party using either the d’Hondt or Saint-Lague formulas. Some such systems have a minimum overall threshold of votes which parties must reach to win a seat. This is designed to protect against the fragmentation of legislatures that would otherwise result from the representation of several small parties.[iii] However, a ‘nationwide’ constituency is not an appropriate hypothetical framework for any UK-wide election. Where the PR constituency is ‘nationwide’, all the political parties on the ballot paper must be nationwide political parties. This is because neither the d’Hondt nor the Saint-Lague systems for allocating seats are designed to differentiate between regional and national parties; this must instead be done when designing the constituencies for a PR system. The UK has several regional parties: the Scottish National Party only contests seats in Scotland, Plaid Cymru only contests seats in Wales, and Northern Ireland has its own political parties not found elsewhere in the UK (including Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party). Were the UK analysed as a ‘nationwide’ constituency using the d’Hondt formula and the number of votes actually cast for each party in the 2024 election, the following results might hypothetically be produced:[iv] Party Votes Vote Share Seats Seat Share Labour 9,804,655 33.7% 229 35.2% Conservatives 6,827,311 23.7% 159 24.5% Reform UK 4,117,221 14.3% 96 14.8% Liberal Democrats 3,519,199 12.2% 82 12.6% Green Parties 1,943,265 6.8% 45 6.9% SNP 724,758 2.5% 16 2.5% Sinn Fein 210,891 0.7% 4 0.6% Workers Party 210,194 0.7% 4 0.6% Plaid Cymru 194,811 0.7% 4 0.6% DUP 172,058 0.6% 4 0.6% Alliance Party 117,191 0.4% 2 0.3% UUP 94,779 0.3% 2 0.3% SDLP 86,861 0.3% 2 0.3% TUV 48,685 0.2% 1 0.2% Table 2: UK General Election Results 2024 – on ‘nationwide’ party list PR system With 326 seats required for an overall majority, a coalition would be required, with the most likely option being one between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Parties (356 seats) producing a narrow majority. This would amount to 54.7% of the total seats in the UK Parliament on 52.7% of the popular vote, thus producing a considerably more proportionate outcome. Because the ‘nationwide’ constituency requires, in practice, a certain threshold of votes in order to secure a single seat, it is unlikely that any Independent candidates would be elected. However, it is unwise to draw major conclusions from this analysis, because it treats the SNP, Plaid Cymru and all the Northern Irish parties as if they were national parties. Given this, a preferable hypothetical model

The Democratic Implications of the 2024 Labour Landslide Read More »

Reflecting on Faith-Based Manifestos and Democratic Integrity

Blog, Research Articles /

Author: Chloe Schuber, Operations Assistant : Strengthening Democracy Desk With the UK general elections now over, it is maybe timely to reflect on the plethora of religious groups that have put forth manifestos, or general guidance trying to achieve a) awareness of their concerns, and b) lobbying MPs who were desperate to win votes often in marginal seats with ultimatums. While the goal may be noble and certainly common practice across the world, especially in secular countries, the question arises of where the intersection between religion and democracy becomes a problem or even oversteps boundaries. This article will compare and analyse the five published religious manifestos, their key demands, and if some stand out as more problematic, needing to be deconstructed further. I will provide an overview of the religious manifestos as well as their key verticals or demands. The Christian manifesto emphasises social justice, poverty alleviation, and equality. Supporting organisations such as Cafod call for the cessation of new oil and gas licenses alongside the restoration of the UK’s aid budget to 0.7% of gross national income (decreased to 0.5% since 2020), reflecting a strong commitment to environmental sustainability and a push for the United Kingdom to continue aiding low-income, vulnerable countries. All perfectly noble at first glance. The Sikh manifesto focuses on key and pressing issues such as hate crimes (against Sikhs), representation, and perceived historical justice, including the 1984 Amritsar conflict between the Indian State, and separatist militants who had barricaded themselves into the Golden Temple fully armed dreaming of Khalistan. There was an ask for representation in public and political life, alongside recognition of the Sikh’s contribution to British society. The manifesto calls for further safety measures against their perceived lived religious discrimination. It is worthy to note that Sikh Federation who authored the report themselves have tenuous links to what the Bloom report called Pro-Khalistan extremists (PKEs).  The Islamic manifesto, outlined by the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB), takes the form of a website. It presents both key commitments alongside an analysis of all candidates and their alignment with those commitments. Ten key commitments for candidates include a push for further inclusivity, support for international peace, and better access to housing and healthcare for the Muslim community. Specific issues such as combating Islamophobia, the recognition of Palestine and call for an immediate ceasefire, and the need for equitable access to all UK social services are highlighted. Like all other religious minorities’ manifestos, the call for further security regarding religious discrimination is placed at the forefront. Once again, it is worth noting that the MCB has had its fair share of controversy with apparent direct connection with, and tacit support for Islamists. The Home Office has generally kept the MCB at arm’s length for these reasons. The Hindu Manifesto, developed by Hindus for Democracy, an organisation we have analysed in depth in another article here, outlines seven key demands. These include the recognition of anti-Hindu hate as hate crimes, the protection of Hindu temples, and improved representation of the religion in education. A need for streamlined visa processes for Hindu priests and elderly dependents has been called for, as well as the need for Hindu places of worship to receive equal treatment regarding security funding. This is the first time that a Hindu group has arisen during a general election making demands, and highlighting what they consider to be the need of Hindus.  The Jewish manifesto focuses on combating antisemitism, supporting Israel, and protecting Jewish communities. It calls for government action to address hate crimes and heighten security measures. The manifesto advocates for policies to support Jewish cultural and religious practices. The community’s engagement seems to reflect the need for stronger legal and social frameworks to combat antisemitism. Now to cover a critical question, is it healthy for a democracy if religious groups campaign and deeply engage with politics on issues related to their faith, and their adherents rather than the ‘common good’? When religious groups mobilise around specific faith-based issues, a risk of societal fragmentation arises. At the end of this road lies sectarianism. Voting based on religious identity, especially when manifestos push for conformity to certain political choices straying from the core of religious values, undermines individual autonomy as it puts pressure and adds to the risk of division within these communities. The problem seems to intensify with specific demands put forth, whom, between the lines, posit voting a certain way makes you a ‘good’ member of a faith as community leaders have decided to advocate a particular policy, whether it may be through a specific interpretation of religious texts or even political opinions and biases formed over decades within the country at stake. I wish to outline two examples to demonstrate the point. to underline the conscient choice of these religious groups to include in their manifestos political and dividing opinion on certain issues.  Firstly, the Christian manifesto has a strong position of support on conversion therapy. Whilst explaining that they do not believe in the extreme tactics the LGBT communities have drawn it out to be, they believe this practice should be protected. On a very basic level, it is hard for many Christians to stand behind that as conversion therapy has proven to go against freedom from persecution and discrimination based on sexuality. Whether or not the actual practices go against human rights is a more delicate and uncertain discussion, which is beyond the scope of this short piece.  Similarly, on another religious manifesto, the Jewish one, the choice to put as one of the key demands the support for Israel amidst heavy political debates and a certain nuance agreed upon by many, including international organisations and politicians, shows the refusal to take part in this constructive, nuanced solution-building process of this war. The same can be said about the Muslim manifesto which has significant overtones for Palestine. Whilst obviously some consequences related to this war are undeniable and factual such as the rise in antisemitism and murder of Israelis

Reflecting on Faith-Based Manifestos and Democratic Integrity Read More »

What is the need for yet another faith-based manifesto?

Blog, Research Articles /

We decided to ask the community. On 8th June 2024, a new group called Hindus for Democracy suddenly came out of nowhere and joined the din of faith-based groups presenting political manifestos. Our diaspora desk took the initiative to investigate why this group, a loose composition of various Hindu organisations, felt the need to produce a 7-point demand of politicians to take note if they wanted the Hindu vote.   As a rule, religious manifestos should be received with sufficient skepticism, as they can be subversive to the democratic process. The essence of a liberal democracy is the separation between Church and State, for the obvious matter that in a diverse society policy-makers ought to be making their decisions on rational, impartial grounds, one that takes the considerations of all citizens. Often religious manifestos can prioritise particular religious grievances over what is good for the majority. They can also be divisive, narrow in mandate, and can “other” different groups within the society. These religious groups often emphasize foreign affairs and can drown out the discussion on everyday British matters that concern the vast majority. It is with this skepticism that we wanted to review the Hindu manifesto, and ask those who championed it, why they felt it was necessary.    We asked Trupi Patel, President of the Hindu Forum of Britain, who told us: “ The document highlights the importance of Hindu aspirations in the political fabric of British society and inform the future Parliamentarians about the rightful needs of the community”. Rajnish Kashyap, the General Secretary of the Hindu Council (UK), another Hindu umbrella body said: “This document aims to maintain the community’s religious and cultural practices”. Echoing similar thoughts, and adding how this document would be helpful for the community itself, Mr. Dhiraj  Shah, President of Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh (UK) said: “The Hindu community in the UK is well integrated, law-abiding, and a net contributing community to every sector of national life, beyond its numbers. While these are positive points, several community concerns have not been properly addressed. Faith-based consultation is a part of the policy-making framework of the United Kingdom’s democratic tradition. Therefore, this manifesto is a democratic instrument for Hindus in the UK to engage with politicians. This will give the government clear guidance on the needs of the Hindu community. The particular community-specific aspirations mentioned in the seven themes of the manifesto are in addition to general aspirations like access to healthcare and controlling inflation, which concern all the residents living in the UK.” A national team member of INSIGHT UK, a group representing the Hindu and Indian community mentioned that “Hinduphobia or Anti-Hindu hate is on the up in the UK, as we all saw during the Leicester unrest”. To further support this point, Insight UK also referred to a 2023 report on ‘Anti-Hindu Hate in Schools in the UK’ commissioned by the Henry Jackson Society. They went on to tell us, “The manifesto provides a working definition of ‘Anti-Hindu hate’, which may be adopted, or discussion may start around it to define and recognise it as a religious hate-crime.  Recognition of Hindu-hate, as a hate crime is one thing, but the manifesto also asks that anyone involved in Hindu-hate be prosecuted and an organisation that spreads Hindu-hate even proscribed. The Muslim Council of Britain is another body that has been championing Islamophobia along the same grounds and has also been criticised for trying to shut down fair criticism. What those who are behind the new Hindu manifesto seem to be pointing towards is that whereas the Police and the wider British State seem to recognise Antisemitism and Islamophobia, Hindu-hate is a relatively unknown concept and not logged, and therefore remains invisible.     The second theme concerns the protection of Hindu places of worship (Mandirs). The document refers to the special security schemes framed by the UK government for the protection of places of worship for Jews and Muslims. As cited by the manifesto, these schemes grant GBP 117 million for the protection of the Mosques and GBP 70 million for the protection of Synagogues. The manifesto demands a similar special protection scheme for the protection of Hindu Mandirs, particularly in the light of attacks on Hindu mandirs in the recent past. A spokesperson of ‘Hindu Mandir Network’ said “without disputing the necessity of a special protection scheme for other places of worship, we expect that it is recognised that Hindu Mandirs are equally at risk from Hate-crimes and therefore equal and appropriate special financial support should be provided.”. We asked young Hindus too, about their involvement in the creation of the Hindu Manifesto. We asked Nikita Trivedi, Sabbatical Officer at the National Hindu Students’ Forum (NHSF UK), who said that “everyone knows that education is the most important thing for any Hindu parent. We literally worship knowledge. It seems only fair that the State recognises that the Hindu community also has challenges around access to good schools.”  Asmita Bhudia, a representative of the Hindu Education Board (HEB), and a teacher herself, told us “that there is a pressing need for a comprehensive and accurate representation of Hinduism in Religious Education (RE) within UK schools”. Hindu children in the UK seldom have a choice to pick up their own religious tradition to study at higher levels. Additionally, text books and information on teaching Hinduism is patchy at best, and rather non-existent in many places. It seems perfectly reasonable to highlight the need for fair access, and additional resources to help produce better, more accurate material for teachers, coupled with adequate training.   The issue of immigration has also been raised in the Hindu Manifesto (UK), somewhat bizarrely. There are three asks in the document: First, to streamline the visa process for Hindu priests to be allowed into the country who are often caretakers of some of the 380 Hindu temples across the country. Mr. Rajnish Kashyap from Hindu Council UK and Chairperson of Vishwa Hindu Kendra Mandir Southall noted that “Hindu temples in the UK often struggle to

What is the need for yet another faith-based manifesto? Read More »

Rishi Sunak’s National Service: Insights and Discussion  

Blog, Research Articles /

Author: Chloe Schuber, Operations Assistant : Strengthening Democracy Desk 26th of May. Rishi Sunak proposes reintroducing mandatory national service for 18-year-olds where the ruling Conservative Party is reelected. This announcement was recent, politically, as well as electorally strategic, given contrasting statements from the party days before. This strategic move by Sunak has stirred controversy and criticism by both the public and opposing parties in the upcoming elections, casting a shadow over the Conservative’s already troubled campaign.    The plan aims to have every 18-year-old by September 2025 enrolled in armed forces placements or non-military volunteering. Community volunteering, equating to 25 days over a year would be within organisations such as the NHS, emergency services, and local infrastructures. The military placement is a more intensive and selective program with 30,000 placements intensive for the “brightest and the best” 18-year-olds in areas relating to cyber security, civil response, or even logistics.  This 2.5 billion-costing attempt at a renewed sense of purpose amongst younger generations and patriotism has been criticized by Labour amongst others as desperate and unfunded.   Who is this for, if not for the younger generation concerned with this policy?   This announcement has been analyzed to be a move for Sunak to appeal to the older Tory electorate especially with the Right dividing itself with the upcoming elections. Why the national service? Aligning with Conservative values such as the strengthening of a nation is key to winning over certain electorate demographics. A 2024 YouGov Survey on this very subject underlines the statistics.   Older Conservative individuals surveyed prevail as those who support this proposition. This demographic seems to view national service as a solution to bridging the generational and ideological divide, fostering a stronger connection to declining national identity and traditional values amongst youth. Only 10% of 18 to 24-year-olds strongly support national service. The data is clear on who Sunak made this promise to.  Criticisms from Military and Political Figures   Former military chiefs and Conservative figures (Admiral Alan West, former Chief of the Naval Staff & Michael Portillo, a former defense secretary amongst others) have been particularly vocal in their opposition, amidst an underfunded defense budget unable to maintain or even enhance the current professional armed forces. Fiscal responsibility and overall public demands on more pressing needs seemed to antagonize what Sunak’s campaigning agenda put forth with this announcement.  Imposing an underfunded government brand the inclusion of tens or hundreds of thousands of untrained teenage volunteers would strain the armed forces with no benefits or better funding in sight.  The policy is unlikely to be successful without first solving rooted structural issues in this institution.  Political and Public Reactions This announcement, characterized as optimistic electoral opportunism, is undefendable regarding the statistics and insights available to politicians on the current situation and views of UK Youth. (Richard Dannatt, former Chief of the General Staff) A sensible policy measure is needed rather. Fixing the current state of defense and further down the line, establishing a dialogue with youth on how to build a sense of civic identity with these generations who did not experience mandatory military service, most likely for the best, many agree on.  John Healey, Labour Candidate and Shadow Defense Secretary stated, ‘The Conservative made recruitment crisis is just one example of their failure in defense for 14 years.’  Conservative ministers during this past decade in power have repeatedly missed recruitment targets, leading the British Army to its smallest since the 1800s. (UK Defence Journal, 2023) Returning to the disconnect, lack of consensus, and strategic planning from within the Conservative Party, some Tory MPs applauded this policy as a bold and smart move, it was vastly acknowledged as very poorly communicated which sparked confusion and skepticism about the very foundation of this idea.  Broader Implications and Risks   The broader implications of Sunak’s proposal extend beyond immediate financial and logistical concerns. This initiative blatantly displays Sunak’s critical and somewhat impulsive political moves to appeal to more right-wing voters and respond to political pressures. The rise of parties like Reform UK has divided the Right and the Conservatives have seemingly resorted to more radical measures to try and reclaim voters. Alongside this, a more general fear and questioning has been brought up in light of geopolitical tensions, some seeing this push for more military conscription as the prediction of future conflicts and the use of national services as a tool for future military actions.   How will this impact the armed forces in practice? Financially, the proposal is contentious. The estimated minimum £2.5 billion annual cost by the end of the decade of the program alarmed many. In addition, the training of 10,000 volunteers would require additional officers, leading to this project costing much more. Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence Andrew Murrison also highlighted the risk of unmotivated recruits being mixed with committed professionals, damaging morale, recruitment, or retention. This goal of bringing purpose and pride to their nation to 18-year-olds seems counterproductive considering the compulsory nature of the new system.   Societal Impact   The societal impact of the proposal reflects Conservative priorities. The fundamental motivation behind this promise Sunak made, was not to benefit younger voters but rather to please, target and rally votes from older generations. Young people typically unfairly feel to a deeper extent where UK society’s flaws come to light, underfunded education, cost of living crisis, and oversaturation of the workforce. Rather than addressing these issues through more effective or inclusive policies, 12 months of state-mandated national service or ‘compulsory volunteering’ does not prevail as the most thorough plan to help the youth. And perhaps, it was never meant to be. The youngest generation entering the electorate is predicted to vote Labour to an overwhelming extent. Rishi Sunak has already lost this battle of connecting with a youth who does not feel heard by the Conservatives.   Conclusion    To conclude, the overwhelming criticism of Sunak’s proposal for mandatory national services has sparked discussions in a diverse sphere of societal issues the UK faces. As Conservatives continue navigating this issue, criticisms regarding

Rishi Sunak’s National Service: Insights and Discussion   Read More »

india elections

The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections – What Next?

Blog, Research Articles /

Author: Pravar Petkar, Head of Strengthening Democracy Desk The world’s largest democratic exercise has now concluded. The BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate and incumbent PM Narendra Modi is set for a third term in office. Yet the dynamics now are very different to those in 2014 and 2019: gone is the BJP’s overall majority; Modi instead must govern in a coalition with the BJP’s partners in the National Democratic Alliance, which collectively won 293 out of the 543 seats in India’s Lok Sabha (Lower House). The result shows India’s democracy is alive and kicking: to borrow Mark Twain’s phrase, reports of its death are greatly exaggerated. No democracy worth its salt can fail to have free and fair elections, with a peaceful transfer of power and the possibility that incumbents might be voted out. The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections show a democracy in action. From 2019, the BJP lost 63 seats (falling from 303 to 240), with the NDA as a whole dropping 60 seats. Conversely, the Indian National Congress (INC) almost doubled its vote share from 2019, rising from 52 seats to 99. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) of which the INC was part held only 91 seats in 2019, but the newly formed INDI Alliance (Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance), established before the campaign began, secured 234 seats in total. This represents a significant anti-incumbent swing, with around 642 million of the 970 million registered voters having turned out to vote (approximately 66%). This puts some perspective on allegations by the INC before the announcement of the results that the counting process was rigged in favour of the BJP. There is also little concrete evidence that Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) were manipulated, with the Supreme Court of India affirming the integrity of the process in April 2024. In fact, the celebration of the results by all the major parties only lends further credibility to India’s electoral arrangements. The results suggest that Indian democracy is shaped by a complex series of factors that cannot be reduced to the politics of religion. Some commentators have suggested that the BJP’s loss of seats demonstrates that economic issues will always trump the politics of religion. Whilst the BJP campaign did draw on religion – including an address by PM Modi in Rajasthan in which he claimed that under the INC, Muslims would have “the first right” over people’s wealth – both parties highlighted India’s current issues of youth unemployment. That said, the INC manifesto was headlined by a proposal for a nationwide socio-economic and caste census, and the promise of increased affirmative action for Scheduled Caste (SC), Scheduled Tribe (ST) and Other Backward Class (OBC) groups. As they have in previous elections, caste politics may have shaped the outcomes in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. For many, the question is whether the politics of religion have run aground on the rocks of democracy: the answer is not yet clear. For most, the outcome of these elections is rather unexpected. It had been assumed across the world in the lead-up that the BJP would secure another overall majority. Amit Shah, the Home Minister from 2019 to 2024, had even suggested that the NDA was aiming for 400 Lok Sabha seats, a record majority. It is difficult to square the BJP’s downturn with the view – expressed by the INC, members of the international media and academic commentators – that India had simply ceased to be a democracy between 2014 and 2024 because the BJP was in power. As Rahul Verma of the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi puts it, “the assertion that the erosion of democratic values is the creation of one party and its recent electoral success is an untenable oversimplification.” This is neither to obscure nor deny the religious nationalism of the 2019 BJP Government, or the way in which a one-party government has led to the centralisation of political authority in India. However, judgments about the health of any country’s democracy must be made based on structural and long-term factors, and as Verma suggests, by reference to standards attuned to each country’s unique institutional and cultural features. A flourishing and sustainable democracy does not cease to be so simply because a different party comes into power, nor does democracy suddenly become re-awakened when authoritarian, populist or anti-democratic parties are voted out. There are nevertheless two structural challenges to Indian democracy which are currently worthy of attention. First, recent commentary by the ICfS has noted issues in the appointment process for the Election Commission of India (ECI): after the Supreme Court of India had mandated the Leader of the Opposition’s involvement in appointments, the BJP Government legislated to replace the Leader of the Opposition with a Cabinet Minister instead. The natural conclusion is that a watchdog that ought to be independent has been politicised. This has raised questions around whether the ECI’s application of the Model Code of Conduct – including a finding that PM Modi’s Rajasthan speech violated the code – was truly objective, as violation notices were issued to both the INC and BJP as parties, rather than to individual candidates. Maintaining India’s long-term democratic health requires the new NDA Government to reverse these changes and safeguard the ECI’s independence. Second, questions persist over whether India’s regulatory framework for tackling AI-generated misinformation is up to scratch. The 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign saw deepfakes of Bollywood actors criticising PM Modi , as well as fabricated videos of two deceased politicians in Tamil Nadu addressing today’s voters. Recent Government-issued advisory notes emphasise the obligations upon social media platforms and AI companies to be transparent about AI-generated content and remove anything unlawful. However, the broader regulatory scheme exposes platforms to criminal liability for unlawful speech where content is flagged by Government-approved fact-checkers as ‘false’. This raises free speech concerns that go the heart of whether Indian citizens can make decisions at the ballot box based on a wide range of perspectives. With the BJP Government having

The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections – What Next? Read More »

The Nature of Power: A Complex and Intricate Dance

Blog, Research Articles /

 ‘Power’, said Marcus Aurelius, ‘is something that can only be exercised within oneself, upon ones own mind – not outside events. Realise this, and you will find strength’. [Meditations, Book VI, Ch. 8] It is a question that we seldom ask these days – what really is power; where is it found; and how can it be really exercised? Power is a multifaceted concept that extends beyond mere authority or control. It is an intricate web of influence, perception, and ability to effect change. Defining power involves understanding its sources, mechanisms, and limitations. According to political theorist Robert A. Dahl, power is the ability of one actor to make another actor do something they would not otherwise do (Dahl, 1957). To What Extent Are People in Positions of Power Actually in Power? Prime ministers, ministers of state, and CEOs of large companies are often perceived as the epitome of power. However, their ability to exercise this power is frequently constrained by various factors. For instance, political leaders like Narendra Modi, or our own Prime minister Rishi Sunak, operate within a democratic framework where their decisions are subject to parliamentary approval, party politics, and public opinion. CEOs, despite their significant influence within their corporations, must answer to boards of directors, shareholders, and regulatory bodies. The limitations on their power are numerous. In democracies, politicians must navigate a labyrinth of bureaucracy, legal constraints, and public accountability. This often results in a dilution of their power as they are forced to compromise and negotiate. Similarly, CEOs face market competition, regulatory environments, and internal company dynamics that can hinder their ability to implement changes unilaterally. The Performance of Power in Politics In democratic systems, politicians often find themselves wearing a metaphorical mask, performing an alter ego that aligns with public expectations and media portrayals. This performance of power, rather than the actual wielding of it, becomes crucial for maintaining their position. The notion that politicians must “act” power rather than be powerful is vividly illustrated in their public personas and campaign strategies. Narendra Modi, for example, has cultivated a strongman image, portraying himself as a decisive leader capable of transformative change. Rishi Sunak, with his polished public appearances and careful articulation, embodies the image of a competent and reliable leader. Even Keir Starmer presents himself as a principled and steady alternative to the current government. These public personas are meticulously crafted to resonate with voters and maintain their support. However, the performance often takes a toll on their true selves. The constant need to project power and confidence can lead to a disconnection from their authentic personalities, resulting in a deranged or altered character. This is not merely an act of deception but a necessity imposed by the nature of political life. Power in this sense can be deeply corrosive to the character of any politician, and takes a Herculean effort, and large portions of luck to maintain integrity, honesty, and vulnerability. Power and the Media: The Role of Communication Often in British democracy, to effectively wield power, politicians must often bypass traditional bureaucratic structures and communicate directly with the public. This is typically achieved through the media, which acts as a filter and amplifier of their messages. Only by engaging with the public can politicians hope to turn the cogs of power and initiate change. Liz Truss provides a poignant example of this phenomenon. Rory Stewart, a fellow politician, recounts an incident where Truss, uninterested in genuine policy development, demanded a hastily concocted seven-point plan for national parks. This plan, quickly handed to the BBC for publication, served more as a performative act of power than a substantive policy initiative (Stewart, 2023). Truss’s actions illustrate how the desire for power can eclipse the commitment to actual governance. The Realities of Power The case of Liz Truss is emblematic of a broader trend where the allure of power can overshadow its responsible exercise. The performative aspect of power is often prioritized over its substantive application. Politicians like Truss crave the appearance of decisiveness and control, even if it means neglecting the follow-through necessary for real change. In contrast, Rory Stewart himself represents a different approach to power. His dedication to detailed policy work and genuine change highlights the potential for power to be exercised responsibly and effectively. However, such an approach is increasingly rare in a political landscape dominated by media performance and public perception. Stewart, to-date, has failed as a politician in the United Kingdom precisely because he refuses to engage in the performative aspects of being a politician. So what? The nature of power is a complex interplay of influence, perception, and action. Those in positions of authority, whether in politics or business, are often constrained by external factors that limit their ability to exercise power fully. In democratic systems, the need to perform power complicates the genuine exercise of it, leading to a disconnection between public personas and true capabilities. Ultimately, the effectiveness of power hinges on the ability to engage directly with the public, leapfrogging bureaucratic inertia and leveraging media influence. As the cases of Modi, Sunak, Truss, and Stewart demonstrate, power is not just about holding a position but about the delicate dance of perception, communication, and action. This nuanced understanding of power reveals both its potential and its pitfalls, underscoring the importance of authenticity and responsibility in its exercise.

The Nature of Power: A Complex and Intricate Dance Read More »

Understanding Kashmir Post-370: Assessing Security Trends

Blog, Research Articles /

Author: Shruti Kapil, Researcher and Mutual Dependence desk. We are pleased to share an in-depth analysis of the significant changes in Jammu and Kashmir following the abrogation of Article 370. This briefing paper examines the security situation and progress in the region, especially in light of recent attacks on Hindu pilgrims, security personnel, and other civilians that have drawn global attention. Authored by Shruti Kapil, the paper delves into the historical, cultural, and geopolitical aspects of Jammu and Kashmir. It offers a detailed look at the region’s security landscape and socio-economic conditions following the legislative change on August 5, 2019. The analysis also emphasizes the delicate balance between security measures and human rights, the importance of transparent governance, and the necessity for inclusive economic development. Additionally, it highlights the role of international diplomacy in shaping global narratives and securing support for India’s position on Kashmir. For a comprehensive understanding of these critical developments, please follow the link to view the full paper here.

Understanding Kashmir Post-370: Assessing Security Trends Read More »

Navigating the Minefield: Misinformation and disinformation in Indian elections

Blog, Research Articles /

Author: Shruti Kapil, Associate Security & Mutual dependence Summary: the 2024 General Elections in India have been labeled the ‘AI elections’. There is growing evidence of both opportunities for political parties and threats to the information ecosystem, with a careful balance required between government regulations, innovation and fostering individual responsibility through education. The 2024 general elections in India are being labeled as the ‘AI elections,’ with artificial intelligence (AI) playing a significant role in campaign strategies. With nearly 986 million voters, 751 million internet users, along with a digital literacy rate of 61 percent in urban areas and only 25 percent in rural regions, the impact of AI presents an unprecedented challenge. The World Economic Forum has identified misinformation and disinformation as India’s top threat for 2024. Additionally, a survey conducted by the digital rights organization Social & Media Matters found that nearly 80 percent of India’s first-time voters are bombarded with fake news on prominent social media platforms. With 462 million active social media users in India, the concerns regarding the dissemination of misleading information are profound. Such content holds the power to influence voting behavior, compromise electoral integrity, and even incite civil unrest. Numerous instances have highlighted the impact of AI on elections, presenting both opportunities and threats. From AI-generated calls to translated political speeches, to encounters with manipulated videos targeting political figures, the spectrum of AI applications in elections is vast. The central question remains: how can we harness AI for constructive purposes while mitigating its potential negative repercussions on democratic processes? Generative AI has demonstrated significant potential in voter outreach, particularly through telephone communication. For instance, Polymath Solutions, an AI firm based in Ajmer, is conducting a pilot project wherein local politicians interact with voters through AI-generated calls, addressing their concerns in real-time. Similarly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) utilized an AI tool named Bhashini to dub and translate Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech for Tamil-speaking audiences, highlighting AI’s positive impact in overcoming language barriers. Bhashini functions as an AI-powered language translation system, enabling conversations among speakers of diverse Indian languages. This tool has received mixed reactions, with concerns raised about the potential manipulation of content. While AI undeniably offers significant advantages in political campaigns, such as cost reduction, labor-saving, and broader reach, its potential for facilitating misinformation, disinformation, and deepfakes cannot be ignored. Instances of fake news and deepfakes targeting politicians and celebrities, such as actors Amir Khan and Ranveer Singh criticizing PM Modi, underscore the profound impact of AI-driven threats on elections. Similarly, a video purportedly featuring Home Minister Amit Shah announcing changes in reservations stirred controversy, only to be later exposed as edited. There have been instances where deceased politicians were digitally resurrected using AI for political campaigns, leading to voters being misled by these messages. Despite their deceptive nature, these videos garnered millions of views after going viral. Misinformation not only misleads people and undermines trust in the information they encounter but also serves as a convenient excuse for individuals to dismiss authentic content as fabricated or AI-generated. In response to these challenges, the Election Commission of India (ECI) warned political parties against using AI to create deepfake content, mandating removal within three hours of notification. However, delays in removal underscore the need for specific laws to address AI and deepfake technology and deter misinformation. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has issued its first formal guidance on AI models and tools. On March 15, 2024, MeitY retracted a contentious advisory that previously required AI firms to obtain government approval before making their products available online in India. The new advisory eliminates this requirement, instead emphasizing the importance of transparency, content moderation, consent mechanisms, and the identification of deepfakes. The goal is to ensure responsible AI deployment, protect electoral integrity, and enhance user awareness and empowerment. Many in the tech industry criticized the advisory for its ambiguity and its potential to hinder AI innovation. There is a fear that stringent regulations may prompt AI startups to relocate to countries with more favorable regulatory environments. While the advisories represent a positive step forward in an area previously uncharted, their ambiguity has sparked unease within the tech community. India currently lacks a dedicated legislative framework for overseeing the development and deployment of AI technologies, a necessity given the rapid and unpredictable evolution of AI. To address these concerns and provide much-needed clarity, the government is anticipated to unveil a draft AI regulation framework in July. AI-driven threats such as misinformation, disinformation, and fake news transcend borders, impacting all countries and necessitating a transnational solution. The AI Safety Summit 2023 in the UK marked a significant step in uniting nations to understand and explore potential solutions. India and 27 other nations, including the UK, US, and EU, signed a joint declaration committing to collaborative efforts in assessing AI-related risks. Increased international collaboration is essential, not only for driving innovation and progress in AI but also for comprehending its effects on humanity and developing AI solutions to address them. Just as innovation in advancing AI models is encouraged, there should also be incentives for developing AI to mitigate threats posed by AI, thus contributing to a safer global environment. As 80 countries gear up for elections in 2024 amid the looming threats of misinformation and disinformation, empowering the public becomes imperative. Central to countering misleading content is fostering a psychological “herd immunity” through educational initiatives, nurturing critical thinking skills, and encouraging responsible sharing of information online. While governments and tech giants hold pivotal roles, individual users must also shoulder the responsibility for their actions in the digital realm.

Navigating the Minefield: Misinformation and disinformation in Indian elections Read More »

Scroll to Top