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Author name: Sachin Nandha

India’s Green Energy Transition: A Strategic Imperative for Economic and Energy Security

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Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director Introduction The global energy paradigm is shifting at an unprecedented pace. Countries that take decisive action today will shape the future economic and geopolitical order. Renewable energy, electrification, and sustainable industries are no longer just climate necessities but have become economic imperatives. Brazil’s recent announcement of a $6 trillion investment in energy transition by 2050 signals the emergence of a new global economic hierarchy, one where clean energy is a foundation of economic power. India, with its rapid economic growth, rising energy demand, and global leadership aspirations, cannot afford to lag. India has made remarkable progress, achieving over 220 GW of renewable energy capacity in a relatively short space of time, and leads international initiatives like the International Solar Alliance (ISA). However, the pace of transformation must accelerate. The transition to clean energy is not simply a goal, but a prerequisite for economic stability, energy security, and industrial competitiveness in the 21st century. This article explores the strategic imperative of India’s energy transition, focusing on the roles of renewables: how the cost of green hydrogen needs to be brought down; Nuclear energy: by introducing Small Modular Reactors into the mix; Securing critical minerals: by accelerating domestic mining projects; and Climate finance: how India can attract the $10 trillion it needs: by expanding the Green bond market and establishing a carbon exchange market. It outlines policy measures, investment strategies, and private-public partnerships necessary for positioning India as a global leader in clean energy innovation. The Growing Energy Demand and the Need for Transition India’s energy demand is projected to double by 2050, driven by urbanisation, industrialisation, and population growth. The country is currently the third-largest consumer of energy and is heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports, which account for over 80% of crude oil consumption. Comparison to Top Consumers It is particularly worth noting that the average Chinese citizen consumes almost three times as much as the average Indian. This is largely due to India’s significantly smaller industrial base, as well as relatively smaller income per capita. As of 2023, India’s per capita income was a trifling $2,500, and even adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, only $9,000. The PPP figure broadly correlates with China’s income per capita being almost three times as much. India’s demand for energy (*Projected estimates)   Without swift intervention, India will be at risk from rising energy costs, increasing trade deficits, and exposed to high inflation. India’s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels – with over 80% of its crude oil, and 50% of its natural gas coming from foreign sources – makes it highly vulnerable to global energy price fluctuations. Any surge in oil prices directly impacts India’s trade deficit, increasing the cost of imports and leading to inflationary pressures across industries and households. This dependence also weakens energy security, since geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East or OPEC production cuts, can disrupt supply chains and cause price volatility. Without a swift transition to a domestic mix of renewable and nuclear energy sources, India will continue to face economic instability, and fiscal strain on its national economy. Investing in clean energy is not just an environmental necessity but a strategic economic imperative to ensure long-term stability and energy independence. The urgency to transition is further reinforced by the escalating impact of climate change. In 2023 alone, India experienced extreme climate events, including record-breaking heatwaves, devastating floods, and prolonged droughts, all of which underscore the urgent need for a resilient and sustainable energy ecosystem. The country recorded its hottest February in 122 years, impacting agriculture and water availability. In June, catastrophic floods in Assam displaced over 5 million people, while Mumbai saw its heaviest July rainfall in four decades, disrupting transportation and economic activity. Meanwhile, the rest of Maharashtra, and states like Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu faced severe drought conditions, with over 200 reservoirs running critically low, affecting irrigation and drinking water supplies. These climate-induced disasters resulted in economic losses exceeding $18 billion, emphasising the high cost of inaction. Without a rapid transition to clean energy, India will continue to face rising climate risks, economic damage, and environmental instability, threatening both human and economic security. The Role of Nuclear Energy in India’s Clean Energy Future While solar and wind power are critical, they are intermittent energy sources and require backup solutions. Nuclear power provides stable, zero-carbon electricity and is essential for ensuring a secure, 24/7 power supply. India’s nuclear capacity currently stands at 7 GW, contributing only 2% of total electricity generation. The government has set ambitious targets to increase nuclear capacity to 22 GW by 2030 and 50 GW by 2050. India has a unique advantage in nuclear energy: vast thorium reserves. Unlike uranium, thorium is more abundant and safer as a fuel source. India has already initiated a three-stage nuclear program that prioritises the use of pressurised heavy water reactors (PHWRs), fast breeder reactors (FBRs), and advanced thorium reactors. India has been actively collaborating with global partners to accelerate nuclear infrastructure development, regulatory modernisation, and advanced reactor deployment. Two of the most significant partnerships in this domain are with France and the United States, both of which aim to enhance India’s nuclear capacity and technological capabilities. Signed Agreement: The deal between EDF (Électricité de France) and NPCIL (Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited) was reaffirmed in 2023, advancing technical studies and financial negotiations. Strategic Benefits: Jaitapur will provide carbon-free electricity for 70 million homes. Technology Transfer & Fuel Supply: France has also committed to long-term nuclear fuel supply and technology transfer, helping India advance its nuclear expertise.   India-France Nuclear Agreement India and France have been long-term nuclear partners, and their collaboration has deepened under India’s civil nuclear program. The most notable agreement involves the construction of six European Pressurised Reactors (EPRs) in Jaitapur, Maharashtra, which, once operational, will generate 9.6 GW of nuclear power, making it the largest nuclear power project in the world.   India-USA Civil Nuclear Cooperation & Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)

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The Looming Water Crisis: A Threat to India’s Future

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Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director This article was originally published for the Sustainable Business Magazine. India, a country of 1.4 billion people, is running dry. By 2030, India’s water demand is projected to be twice the available supply, putting hundreds of millions at risk and threatening 6% of GDP losses. Over 600 million Indians already face high-to-extreme water stress, and 21 major cities, including Delhi and Bengaluru, are expected to run out of groundwater this year. This is not just an environmental disaster—it’s an economic and geopolitical risk. Water shortages disrupt agriculture, manufacturing, and urban development. Farmers in Maharashtra face yearly droughts, while industries in Chennai shut down intermittently due to water rationing. Without urgent intervention, India’s economic ambitions could be paralyzed. The Role of a UK-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) The UK and India are negotiating a £34 billion trade deal, and sustainability is a critical piece of the puzzle. A well-structured FTA could unlock investment, technology transfer, and financial partnerships to revolutionise India’s water security. Britain, although it has problems of its own, has nevertheless world-class expertise in water management, desalination, and smart metering could provide game-changing solutions. But how exactly can trade policy help quench India’s thirst? Smart Tech & Data-Driven Solutions: The UK’s Secret Weapon Water management in India still relies on archaic infrastructure—leaky pipes, unregulated borewells, and inefficient irrigation. The UK, on the other hand, has pioneered smart water technologies that could transform India’s water security. For example, Thames Water, which manages London’s supply, uses AI-powered leak detection to save millions of litres daily. Similar solutions could prevent India’s 40% water loss due to leaks. Furthermore, the UK has successfully deployed IoT-based smart water meters, reducing domestic water waste by 15-20%. Indian cities like Bengaluru and Chennai could replicate this model, while UK-based companies like Rezatec use AI and satellite imagery to map groundwater depletion and monitor illegal extraction. Such innovations could be a game-changer for Punjab and Haryana, where groundwater is vanishing at alarming rates. An FTA could facilitate knowledge transfer, enabling Indian utilities and municipalities to collaborate with UK firms and adopt these technologies at scale, ensuring a significant reduction in water wastage and improved efficiency in distribution systems. The Investment Gap: Unlocking British Capital India needs to invest $270 billion in water infrastructure over the next decade. Currently, it falls short by at least $100 billion, leaving a massive funding gap. A UK-India FTA could provide a framework to secure the necessary investment, particularly through green bonds, public-private partnerships, and climate risk insurance. British financial institutions like HSBC and Barclays are already investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and incentivising water-focused green bonds could drive billions into India’s pipelines and purification plants. Similarly, the UK’s Thames Tideway Tunnel, a £4.2 billion project, was built using PPPs. A similar model could help cities like Mumbai and Delhi develop world-class water recycling infrastructure. The role of financial instruments in water sustainability cannot be overstated. By introducing climate risk insurance, British financial institutions could help Indian farmers and industries hedge against drought-related economic shocks. These financial mechanisms would be essential in ensuring that water security becomes an integral part of India’s economic planning, rather than a crisis response. Real-World Success Stories: What’s Already Working? A UK-India water partnership isn’t just hypothetical—it’s already happening. Delhi’s Water ATM Project, for instance, is an innovative initiative in which UK engineers have helped install solar-powered water ATMs, providing affordable, clean drinking water to urban slums. These ATMs dispense water for as little as 1 rupee per litre (less than 1p), improving health outcomes in high-risk areas. Likewise, farmers in drought-prone Maharashtra have adopted UK-designed precision irrigation systems, reducing water use by 60% while increasing crop yields. Meanwhile, UK-based water purification firms are partnering with Indian authorities to revive the Ganges, implementing bio-filtration technologies to tackle industrial pollution. These examples illustrate that when international expertise meets local implementation, sustainable solutions emerge. The Role of the International Centre for Sustainability (ICfS) The International Centre for Sustainability (ICfS) in London has the potential to act as a bridge between UK and Indian stakeholders, fostering a more strategic and coordinated approach to water sustainability. By facilitating high-level policy dialogues between UK and Indian water authorities, the ICfS can help align regulatory frameworks and share best practices in water governance. Additionally, the Centre is well-positioned to spearhead joint research initiatives, bringing together scientists, engineers, and policymakers to develop cutting-edge water conservation strategies. Education and skill-building are also critical components of this collaboration. Through training programs and knowledge exchanges, the ICfS could help equip Indian engineers, policymakers, and local communities with the tools and expertise necessary to implement UK water management models effectively. By fostering an ecosystem where sustainability-focused innovation can thrive, the Centre can ensure that trade agreements are not just about commerce, but about creating a lasting impact on India’s water security. The ICfS can also facilitate investment matchmaking, connecting British investors and technology firms with Indian entrepreneurs and local governments. This will ensure that solutions are not only implemented at scale but tailored to India’s diverse water needs, from rural villages to megacities. The Road Ahead: Policy Recommendations & Next Steps For a UK-India FTA to make a real difference in tackling India’s water crisis, policymakers must prioritize specific interventions. Water-smart incentives should be embedded within trade negotiations, ensuring that UK water tech can be imported duty-free and that joint ventures between UK and Indian companies are encouraged. Furthermore, the creation of a dedicated UK-India Water Investment Fund, backed by British development banks, could ensure that sustainable water solutions receive the financial backing necessary to scale. Capacity-building must also remain at the forefront, with training and exchange programs ensuring that knowledge transfer translates into actionable change on the ground. Finally, sustainability benchmarks must be incorporated into FTA agreements to prevent over-extraction and misuse, ensuring that water security remains a long-term priority rather than a short-term business opportunity. Turning the Tide Together Water is the ultimate resource war of the 21st century. Without urgent intervention, India faces a future of drought-driven migration,

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The Future of the Anglican Church: A Schism on the Horizon?

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Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director As Christianity shifts its centre of gravity from the West to the Global South, particularly Africa, tensions within the Anglican Church are becoming more pronounced. Philip Jenkins’ The Next Christendom explores the rise of Christianity in regions like Africa, where it is not only growing numerically but also reshaping the theological landscape. This shift is already creating fractures within the Anglican Communion, as conservative African churches and their more liberal counterparts in the UK clash over key issues such as same-sex marriage, gender identity, women bishops, and abortion. Rising Tensions Between African and UK Anglican Churches The Anglican Church in the UK has embraced a progressive stance on many social issues, aligning with the broader secular culture. Policies like the acceptance of same-sex marriage, the ordination of women as bishops, and greater inclusivity of LGBTQ+ individuals reflect a rapidly liberalizing Church. However, these changes are being met with growing resistance from Anglican churches in Africa, where Christian teachings are interpreted much more conservatively. In African countries like Nigeria, Uganda, and Kenya, Anglican churches are increasingly vocal in their opposition to these liberal changes. They argue that , while the UK Church is drifting into heresy. As a result, conservative factions within the UK are finding solace in the African Anglican churches, which they see as the new standard-bearers of Christian truth. These conservative UK Anglicans, disillusioned with the liberal direction of their own Church, are turning to Africa for guidance and theological refuge. The growing influence of African Anglicanism is not just a theological shift but a cultural one. African churches, with their emphasis on more traditional family values, are becoming a powerful counterbalance to the liberal trends in Western Christianity. This shift is poised to influence not only the future of the Anglican Communion but also the political and social landscape in the UK, where religious values continue to shape voter preferences and public policy. African Anglican leaders threaten split from Church of England over same-sex union blessing Pentecostal Influence and Syncretism in African Churches However, the conservative African Anglican churches are not merely a mirror image of their UK counterparts. They carry with them a strong Pentecostal flavour, characterised by vibrant, emotionally charged worship styles that can seem foreign to more restrained Western congregations. Moreover, many African churches incorporate elements of animist traditions, including healing rituals and a focus on spiritual warfare, remnants of pre-Christian belief systems. This syncretism, while common in African contexts, is often viewed with discomfort by European Christians, who are more accustomed to a clear separation between Christianity and indigenous belief systems. Despite these differences, the growing influence of African Anglicanism is undeniable. As UK conservatives increasingly align themselves with African churches, this theological and cultural fusion will shape the future of the Anglican Communion. Political Implications in the UK As the Anglican Church’s centre of gravity shifts towards Africa, the conservative values of African Anglicanism—opposition to same-sex marriage, gender fluidity, and liberal bioethics—will become more prominent within the Anglican community in the UK. These values are likely to influence the political and social landscape in the UK, as religious groups often play a critical role in shaping voter behaviour and public policy. For example, UK politicians seeking the support of conservative Christian voters may find themselves pressured to adopt positions more in line with African Anglican values. This could lead to a reemphasis on traditional family structures, a renewed focus on religious freedom, and a pushback against progressive social policies. As African churches gain influence within the global Anglican Communion, their conservative stance on social issues may drive political changes in the UK. Conservatives find home at African churches. Christianity in India: Syncretism and the Risk of Absorption India presents a different but equally complex picture of how Christianity is evolving. With its long history of religious plurality, India is home to a rich tapestry of faith traditions, including Christianity. The faith has existed in India since the arrival of St. Thomas in the first century, and today, India’s Christian population is growing, especially in the southern and northeastern states. Like Africa, Christianity in India often blends with local religious traditions. In many cases, Christian worship incorporates elements of Hindu traditions, such as the use of oil lamps, flowers, and incense. This syncretism reflects the adaptability of Christianity in India’s diverse religious landscape, but it also raises concerns among Western clergy. Many Western Anglican leaders worry that if Christianity in India becomes too syncretic, it risks being absorbed into the wider Hindu pantheon, potentially becoming yet another Hindu sect rather than maintaining a distinct religious identity. These concerns stem from the fear that if clear boundaries are not drawn, Christianity will lose its doctrinal purity and autonomy in the Indian religious context. Western clergy often argue that without these boundaries, Christianity in India could be diluted to the point where it is indistinguishable from the surrounding religious milieu. However, this insistence on maintaining clear boundaries creates tensions between communities that might otherwise coexist peacefully. In regions where religious syncretism is a natural part of the cultural fabric, imposing rigid distinctions between Christianity and Hindu traditions could lead to social fragmentation. Communities that have traditionally found common ground through shared religious practices may be forced into a more divisive dynamic, as efforts to maintain Christian distinctiveness disrupt local traditions. To allow syncretism or not to allow: for that is the question. A Dilemma for the Church: Boundary Drawing vs. Natural Integration The Church faces a dilemma: by drawing clear theological boundaries, it risks fostering division and increasing tension in pluralistic societies like India. On the other hand, allowing Christianity to evolve more naturally in these contexts, embracing syncretism where it arises, may lead to greater harmony between religious communities but at the cost of doctrinal clarity. Some argue that the Church’s efforts to impose stricter boundaries may actually cause the very tensions it seeks to avoid. By allowing Christianity in India to unfold organically, the faith could

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Navigating India’s Path to Unprecedented Growth: A Call to Visionary Leaders

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Navigating India’s Path to Unprecedented Growth: A Call to Visionary Leaders Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director India is in a hurry. This was the resounding message at a recent conference where leaders across industries gathered to discuss the nation’s future at the City of London’s Guildhall. As I listened to Adrian Cartwright, Senior Partner at Clifford Chance, and BVR Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog, India’s “Do Tank”, it became clear that India stands at a critical juncture in its development journey. The Journey from Low Income to Middle Income India is currently transitioning from a low-income country to a middle-income nation. However, this transition carries the risk of a “middle-income trap,” where economic progress stalls without significant reforms. To avoid this trap, India must aggressively reform its policy framework and invest heavily in capacity building—not just for its civil servants, but also for the public at large. The Imperative for Infrastructure Investment India’s infrastructure is the foundation upon which its future growth will be built. The Union government currently allocates 3.5% of GDP to infrastructure, with the States contributing an additional 3%. However, to achieve its ambitious goals and ensure sustainable growth, India needs to invest 10% of its GDP into infrastructure. This leaves a shortfall of at least 3.5%, which must be filled by international financiers. Historically, international investors have been cautious about investing in India, often citing regulatory hurdles and past negative experiences. However, the landscape is changing. The top two airports in India are now privately owned, serving as a testament to the potential for successful private investment. Mumbai, for instance, requires a staggering $150 billion in infrastructure investment, with $30-40 billion expected from the government and the remainder from private and international investors. India has at least 20 emerging cities that it needs to build – Delhi, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Karnavati (formerly Ahmedabad) are just to name a few. India’s megacities – this is Mumbai The Role of International Capital Return on Investment (RoI) is the key driver for international capital, and India must focus on minimising risks and providing incentives to attract this capital. Regulatory frameworks are evolving, but more needs to be done. The government needs to move towards monitoring frameworks rather than individual projects, a shift that could streamline processes and reduce bureaucratic delays. This is arguably still the number one challenge still facing international investors. Areas Ripe for Investment India’s infrastructure needs are vast and varied. The civil aviation sector, particularly airports, presents significant opportunities for investment. Road construction, metro projects, and the burgeoning green hydrogen industry are other areas where international capital can play a transformative role. However, perception and history remain barriers. There is a need for consistent messaging and a change in tone from senior government officials, who are now increasingly adopting a more commercial approach to governance. India must also work on marketing itself better to the global investment community, ensuring that its success stories are heard loud and clear. The Green Transition and Infrastructure Resilience As India charts its path towards net-zero emissions, every infrastructure project must be assessed through a net-zero framework. This green transition will inevitably have adverse effects on states reliant on coal, but it also opens new avenues for investment in renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure. A staggering 90% of India’s infrastructure is yet to be built, and 75% of urban infrastructure needs to be rebuilt. This presents a unique opportunity for visionary investors who can think beyond risk management to resilience—building infrastructure that can withstand the unknown challenges of the future. India’s new solar plants The Call to Action India’s growth story is far from complete. The nation still has a long way to go, but the opportunities for those willing to take the leap are immense. For the daring and entrepreneurial, now is the time to navigate and build the investment corridors that will make India’s potential a reality. The International Centre for Sustainability is committed to supporting this journey. Our mission is to build the knowledge, training, and policy centres that will enable India to achieve its ambitious goals. By fostering a deeper understanding of India’s development landscape and providing the tools necessary to navigate it, we aim to create an environment where visionary leaders can thrive and drive the next phase of India’s growth. India is ready. The question is, are we ready to jump in and help 20% of the world’s population?

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Travelling 200 Years in 4 Hours: A Journey Across Arunachal and Assam

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Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director India is still incredibly poor. It’s a stark reality that I couldn’t ignore as I travelled across the north-eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Despite the glittering towers and booming industries in India’s metropolitan centres, there’s another India—an India that feels like it belongs to a different century. This journey took me from the relatively developed yet fragmented plains of Assam to the remote, almost untouched hills of Arunachal Pradesh, where the contrast between progress and stagnation is palpable. The Three Centuries Model: A Snapshot of India Imagine traversing three centuries in the span of just four hours. That’s exactly what it felt like on my road trip from Dibrugarh, Assam, through the thick jungles and rugged hills of Arunachal Pradesh. In urban India, it’s easy to forget that not everyone is part of the rapid economic growth the country has seen over the past few decades. But as you move from the bustling streets of Dibrugarh into the dense forests and steep slopes of Arunachal, you quickly realise that many parts of India are still living in a world that resembles the 19th century more than the 21st. India’s growth is not inclusive. The country has certainly made significant strides, with a GDP growth rate that rivals some of the world’s largest economies. But this growth hasn’t reached everyone. The Three Centuries Model is a useful way to understand this: in places like Mumbai or Bengaluru, you might feel like you’re in the 21st century, surrounded by technology and modern infrastructure. In smaller towns like Dibrugarh, it’s more like the 20th century, with basic infrastructure, huge divides between the wealthy and the poor, and a struggle to balance the old with the new. Then, in places like Arunachal Pradesh, you find communities that are still living as if they’re in the 19th century—isolated, with minimal access to modern amenities, and deeply rooted in traditional ways of life. The Journey: From Assam to Arunachal Pradesh My journey began in Dibrugarh, a city in Assam that epitomises the clash between the 20th and 21st centuries. Dibrugarh is a city of contrasts, where the crumbling infrastructure and bustling, noisy streets stand in stark contrast to the serene tea gardens that surround it. The tea plantations here feel like stepping into a romantic novel by R.K. Narayan, with vast fields of lush green, the quiet broken only by the gentle rustle of the wind and the sight of butterflies dancing in the air. It’s a silence that is rare in India, a country known for its ceaseless activity. Yet, beneath this idyllic surface lies a deep economic divide. The tea gardens of Assam are a microcosm of the inequalities that persist across India. On one hand, you have the wealthy plantation owners, whose sprawling estates and luxurious lifestyles are reminiscent of a bygone era. On the other, you have the tea pickers—mostly women—who toil in the fields, earning meagre wages for seriously arduous work. Tea estates in Assam The disparity between the owners and workers is stark.  The average daily wage for a tea worker in Assam is around ₹300 (approximately £3per day), a figure that highlights the poverty and what many call exploitation faced by these labourers. Of course, this statistic isn’t fully in keeping with the truth, as these labourers get given accommodation and rations of rice and grain as part of their package. Furthermore, these labourers are well organised and often flex their power to shut down factories should they feel that they are being mistreated. Yet, regardless of numbers, millions of workers in tea plantations lead peasantry lives. Meanwhile, the tea industry is worth around £3 billion, with India being one of the largest producers of tea in the world. But this is not a Dickensian tale about rich megalomanic landlords thieving off the hard graft of the poor. Far from it. Most tea plantation owners are struggling to make a profit themselves. Much of this tea is sold in the UK, or in Japan for as much as £10 for 200 grams. There are structural problems that are international, and India is caught in a serious wedge, which if not handled well could lead to social strife between the poor and the perceived land-owning classes. This glaring inequality is a reminder of how much work remains to be done internationally to make growth more inclusive. Then, as we crossed into Arunachal Pradesh, the landscape changed dramatically. The roads became narrower and rougher, winding through dense forests and steep hills. The air grew cooler, and the environment seemed to grow wilder with each passing mile. Arunachal Pradesh is one of the most ecologically diverse regions in India, home to a stunning array of flora and fauna. The beauty of the place is breathtaking—tall trees tower overhead, while streams and rivers weave their way through valleys, bringing life to the land. Yet, despite its natural richness, the poverty here is striking. India does not prioritise education anywhere near as it ought to. This is evident in Arunachal Pradesh, where schools are few and far between, and many children don’t receive even basic education. According to government statistics, the literacy rate in Arunachal Pradesh is just 66%, significantly lower than the national average of 74%. The lack of educational infrastructure in this region is a stark reminder of the deep inequalities that persist in India. The Reality: Life in the 19th Century As we travelled deeper into the hills, it became clear that life here has changed little over the past century. Villages are small and scattered, with houses made of bamboo and thatch. Amenities like electricity and clean water are rare, and healthcare facilities are almost non-existent. The people here live close to the land, practicing traditional agriculture and hunting, but they are largely disconnected from the rapid growth seen in the rest of the country. Traditional home in Arunachal Pradesh. Skills development in India in large parts of the country is

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The Indian State: An Intrusive Legacy with Lofty Goals

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Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director The concept of the state has long been a subject of deep inquiry and analysis, from the works of classical political philosophers to modern-day commentators. A state, fundamentally, is composed of several critical pillars—the judiciary, military, bureaucracy, and often an elite class that holds significant influence. However, the essence of a state, as postulated by Max Weber, is its monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force within its territory. It exists to protect its territorial integrity, enforce the rule of law, and create an environment conducive to the flourishing of its citizens. Ideally, taxation in such a state is a tool, not for enrichment, but to provide essential services and infrastructure that enable citizens to pursue their endeavours freely and effectively. Yet, the Indian state, though it shares these fundamental characteristics, has evolved into something far more complex and, some might argue, intrusive. Rooted in a unique historical context, the Indian state has grown into an entity designed to socially engineer its population, specifically targeting entrenched inequalities within Hindu society. This objective, while noble in its intent, has manifested in a state apparatus that is, at times, paternalistic and prone to overreach.   The Origins of the Indian State The Indian state did not emerge in a vacuum. Its modern incarnation is a direct descendant of both British colonial rule and the earlier Mughal administration. The British colonial state, as famously critiqued by Indian leaders like Jawaharlal Nehru and B.R. Ambedkar, was primarily an extractive one, designed to siphon wealth from the Indian populace to serve the interests of the Empire. Nehru, in his seminal work The Discovery of India, lamented how “India was bled” by the colonial administration, which left behind a legacy of underdevelopment and exploitation. This colonial state was built on the remnants of the Mughal administration, which itself was a hierarchical and often autocratic system, albeit with a more feudal character. The British adapted and expanded this system to create a highly centralized and bureaucratic state apparatus, one that was deeply suspicious of the populace and heavily reliant on coercion to maintain order. When India gained independence in 1947, it inherited this centralized structure. However, the new leaders of India were determined to use the state not as a tool of extraction, but as an instrument of social transformation. This vision was encapsulated by B.R. Ambedkar, the principal architect of the Indian Constitution, who envisioned the state as a mechanism to uplift the oppressed and eradicate the deeply entrenched caste system. Ambedkar famously stated, “Political democracy cannot last unless there lies at the base of it social democracy,” highlighting the intertwined nature of social and political justice in the Indian context. Ambedkar, the man who opposed Gandhi, and saw the State as essentially one that engineers a society.   The Indian State: A Tool for Social Engineering In pursuit of these transformative goals, the Indian state adopted a policy of affirmative action, or what is often referred to as “positive discrimination.” This was designed to uplift historically marginalized communities, particularly Dalits (formerly known as Untouchables) and other Scheduled Castes and Tribes. These policies were seen as necessary to rectify centuries of systemic oppression and to ensure that all citizens, regardless of their social background, could participate in the democratic process as equals. However, these well-intentioned policies also led to the creation of a state that is far more interventionist than many of its counterparts. The Indian state’s role extends beyond the typical functions of maintaining law and order or providing public goods. It has actively sought to reshape the social fabric of the nation, to eradicate caste-based discrimination, and to promote a more egalitarian society. As Nehru himself declared in a speech in 1950, “The service of India means the service of the millions who suffer. It means ending poverty and ignorance and disease and inequality of opportunity.” But the approach taken by the state has also been marked by a certain paternalism, rooted in the belief that the state knows what is best for its citizens. This has led to a tendency to impose top-down solutions without always taking into account the diverse needs and desires of India’s vast population. The state’s social engineering efforts, while aimed at promoting equality, have at times been criticized for stifling individual initiative and perpetuating a culture of dependency.   Extractive Practices: A Contemporary Example The extractive tendencies of the Indian state are not just relics of the past but can be observed in contemporary examples as well. A striking case of this was seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, which revealed how certain state government practices can be more extractive than enabling. In March 2020, just before the nationwide lockdown was imposed, many state governments renewed liquor licenses for restaurants and bars, collecting hefty fees from business owners. This was a significant expense for small restaurant owners, who paid these fees with the expectation that they would be able to operate their businesses as usual. However, within weeks, the government imposed a complete lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing all restaurants and bars to shut down indefinitely. The lockdown continued for months, with no refunds or concessions provided to the business owners who had just paid for their liquor licenses. Thousands of small restaurants were left high and dry, unable to operate yet burdened with the cost of licenses they could not use. This was not just a case of bad timing; it highlighted the extractive nature of the state’s approach, where revenue collection took precedence over fair treatment of citizens. This situation exemplifies the systemic issues within the Indian state where the common citizen often finds themselves powerless against the machinery of government. The lack of recourse or accountability in such situations underscores the state’s tendency to act in its own financial interest, often at the expense of those it is meant to serve. Such practices erode trust in the state and reinforce the perception that the government is

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Reflections on India’s New Budget

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Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director Can PM Modi’s government deliver what India needs? India faces significant long-term economic challenges that require substantial policy reforms to unlock its true potential. Despite being branded as “Modinomics,” the economic policies under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure have not deviated significantly from interventionist and socialist practices. This branding should be dropped from the popular lexicon, as it serves more as political marketing than an accurate representation of transformative economic policy. Real change necessitates a move towards promoting private enterprise, reducing regulatory burdens, and embracing market-driven solutions. The Reality Behind “Modinomics” The term “Modinomics” suggests a radical new economic strategy, but in reality, it masks the continuity of traditional policies. India’s economy remains heavily interventionist, with significant government control over key sectors. Despite rhetoric about economic liberalization, substantial reforms to foster private enterprise and reduce state intervention have been limited. For example, the recent budget, while avoiding overtly populist measures, still reflects an interventionist approach. The allocations to states like Andhra Pradesh and Bihar are framed as resource mobilization through multilateral development banks, yet they maintain central oversight and control. The fiscal deficit is set to reduce from 5.1% to 4.9%, bolstered by a significant $22 billion dividend from the RBI. While this is fiscally prudent, it is not indicative of a significant shift towards a market-driven economy. Positive Aspects of the Budget 1. Employment Generation Focus:  – With India’s official unemployment rate hovering around 7.8%, but in reality could be much higher, the budget’s emphasis on job creation is crucial. The announcement of schemes incentivising employers to hire more regular workers is a positive step. These measures acknowledge the urgent need for employment opportunities and align with sound economic principles. This becomes even more apparent when considering that India faces a young population that is largely unskilled and in many cases unemployable. The government has launched a variety of skills development programmes, as well as incentives for employers to employee low skilled workers and to train them through apprentice style programs.  10-12 million new job seekers enter into India’s job market per annum. 2. Agricultural Productivity and Natural Farming:  – Agriculture, which accounts for about 18% of India’s GDP and employs nearly 50% of the workforce, needs urgent reform. The budget’s focus on raising agricultural productivity through a review of the agricultural research establishment is noteworthy. Additionally, the expansion of the natural farming package to 10 million farmers could revolutionise the sector. Studies show that natural farming can increase farmers’ incomes by reducing input costs and improving soil health. 3. Urban Redevelopment:  – Recognising the importance of cities in driving economic growth, the budget proposes initiatives for urban redevelopment. India’s urban population is projected to reach 600 million by 2031, making urban planning crucial. Targeting 14 major cities for transit-oriented development, reducing stamp duties for women homeowners, and building housing for the urban poor and industrial workers are commendable steps. These initiatives can help address the urban housing deficit, which is estimated to be around 18.78 million units. The sheer scale of this makes the UK’s housing problem miniscule.  Missed Opportunities 1. Privatisation of Public Sector Enterprises:  – The budget could have set ambitious targets for privatising public sector enterprises, especially given their high market valuations. Public sector banks, for instance, have a combined market capitalisation of over $120 billion. Privatisation could enhance efficiency and reduce the fiscal burden, with proceeds potentially reducing the public debt to GDP ratio, which stands at around 84%. Of course there are many reasons why the government is reluctant to do this, as it gives politicians significant power to intervene and drive economic incentive schemes of their liking.  2. Asset Monetisation:  – There is a lack of a concrete plan for asset monetisation, which could convert underutilised government assets into productive use. The National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) targets raising $72 billion by monetising core assets, but this budget missed an opportunity to accelerate these efforts. Revenues from such initiatives could significantly reduce public debt and interest pay-outs, which consume nearly 40% of tax revenues. 3. Regulatory and Compliance Reforms:  – Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) continue to be burdened by regulatory and compliance requirements. The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index ranks India at 63rd out of 190 countries. A time-bound plan to reduce these burdens, along with finalising the long-pending labour codes, would have been highly beneficial. Simplifying the compliance landscape could help SMEs, which contribute about 30% to India’s GDP and employ over 110 million people. Reflections While the budget presents a long-term vision focused on employment generation and sustainable growth, India’s economic landscape still faces significant challenges. The country must address regulatory inefficiencies, promote privatisation, and streamline compliance to unlock its true potential. These reforms, though politically sensitive, are essential for India’s economic transformation. Only through such bold measures can India hope to sustain high growth rates and realise its latent potential.  India, although having arrived at an inflexion point, is still at a very nascent stage in its development. India is poised for significant economic growth over the next 25 years, driven by its demographic dividend, rapid urbanisation, and expanding middle class. By 2050, India is expected to become the world’s third-largest economy, with a GDP projected to reach $35 trillion, up from $3.5 trillion in 2023 (Goldman Sachs, 2023). Today these figures by Goldman look fanciful, but considering that even if India fails to make the reforms it so badly requires, it will nevertheless less reach $20 trillion in the worst case scenario. This will still make India a centre for economic, cultural, and military power. The country’s working-age population is set to peak at nearly 1 billion by 2050, providing a substantial labour force for economic activities (World Bank, 2023). Additionally, the rise of the middle class, expected to encompass 1 billion people by 2030, will drive consumer demand and investment (Brookings Institution, 2023).  What India ultimately lacks and so desperately requires is better politics. References: 1. “RBI Transfers

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The Cost of Democracy: A Critical Look at India’s Electoral Landscape

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Author: sachin nandha, trustee and director In the vibrant tapestry of India’s democracy, elections are the most vivid threads, woven with the hopes, aspirations, and voices of over a billion people. Yet, beneath the colorful surface lies a complex and often troubling reality. As we journey through the electoral landscape of India, we uncover the stark truths about the money spent on elections, the manipulation of religious and caste identities, the dismal engagement of women, and the overwhelming power concentrated in the hands of a few. The Price of Power: Money in Elections India’s elections are among the most expensive in the world. In the 2019 general elections, political parties spent an astounding $8.5 billion (₹60,000 crore), a figure that surpasses the GDP of several small countries. This expenditure dwarfs the amounts spent in other democracies. For comparison, the 2019 general election in the UK saw political parties spend approximately £113 million ($150 million). In Japan, the expenditure for the 2017 general election was around ¥67.1 billion ($650 million). These figures highlight the enormous financial scale of Indian elections, raising crucial questions about the integrity and inclusivity of the democratic process. In rural villages, the situation is even more alarming. Reports indicate that voters are often paid anywhere from ₹500 to ₹2000 (£5 to £20) for their votes, a practice that blatantly undermines the principles of democracy. This monetisation of votes not only corrupts the electoral process but also perpetuates a cycle of poverty and dependency. As a farmer from Uttar Pradesh candidly put it, “During elections, politicians come with money. But after they win, they disappear.” A controversy raged over how political parties raised the enormous amounts of money to fight the general elections in 2024. Dividing the Vote : Religion and Caste Religion and caste have long been potent forces in Indian politics. Politicians craftily exploit these identities to create loyal voter blocks. The use of religion in politics is not a new phenomenon, but its recent intensification is worrisome. Political parties often align themselves with religious groups, promising to protect their interests in exchange for votes. This not only polarises society but also distracts from pressing issues like education, healthcare, and employment. For instance, during the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) tenure under Sonia Gandhi’s leadership, there were several instances where religion was used to consolidate votes. The promotion of certain welfare schemes targeted specifically at minority communities was perceived by many as an attempt to secure a solid vote bank. Programs like the Sachar Committee Report and the 15-Point Program for minorities were seen as steps to win over Muslim voters, even as critics argued that these initiatives could exacerbate communal divides. Similarly, caste continues to be a critical factor in Indian elections. Despite legal safeguards, caste-based discrimination and violence persist. Politicians exploit these divisions, promising benefits to certain castes in return for their support. During the same UPA tenure, the Congress party often employed caste dynamics to its advantage. For example, in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the party made concerted efforts to appeal to Dalits and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) by promising reservations and other benefits, further entrenching caste loyalties. This cynical manipulation perpetuates caste hierarchies and hinders social progress. As a Dalit activist from Tamil Nadu remarked, “Caste is the curse of Indian politics. It’s the invisible hand that controls our votes.” The Gender Gap: Lack of Women Engagement Women, who constitute nearly half of India’s population, remain significantly underrepresented in politics. In the 2019 elections, only 14.3% of the candidates were women. This gender gap is starkly evident in the Lok Sabha, where women hold just 78 of the 543 seats. Why Are There So Few Women in Parliament? The reasons for the low representation of women in Indian politics are multifaceted. Societal norms and cultural barriers often discourage women from entering politics. Family responsibilities, societal expectations, and a lack of financial resources further hinder their political participation. According to a study by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), women candidates face significant challenges, including gender bias, threat of violence, and inadequate party support. Consequently, women’s issues, from maternal health to gender-based violence, often receive inadequate attention and are frequently side-lined in the political discourse. Violence against women remains a severe issue. According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), 371,503 cases of crimes against women were reported in 2020, an increase from previous years. This includes cases of domestic violence, sexual assault, and dowry-related violence. Shockingly, 87 rape cases are reported daily in India, highlighting the grim reality that women face across the country. Art to empower women. But India has a long way to go on gender related equality. The lack of education and awareness around women’s health is another significant issue. In rural India, maternal mortality rates remain alarmingly high. According to a report by the Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is 113 per 100,000 live births as of 2017-2019, with higher rates in rural areas. Women in rural regions often lack access to quality healthcare and education, exacerbating health issues and mortality rates. Education for girls also lags behind, with UNESCO reporting that 40% of adolescent girls aged 15-18 years are not attending school in India. This lack of meaningful education severely limits opportunities for women and perpetuates cycles of poverty and dependency. Power and Representation: The MP’s Dilemma In India, Members of Parliament (MPs) wield significant power. With constituencies averaging 2 million people, an MP’s role is both critical and challenging. This vast number makes genuine representation difficult, often resulting in a disconnect between MPs and their constituents. A citizen’s access to Justice Justice in India is expensive, time-consuming, and often inaccessible to the common man. Enforcing contracts or criminal law can be slow and cumbersome, with cases often dragging on for years. The World Bank’s “Doing Business” report ranks India 163rd out of 190 countries in contract enforcement, highlighting the inefficiency of the judicial system. The

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Why Ukraine and the West must resist Putin’s fuzzy logic ICFS

Why Ukraine and the West must resist Putin’s fuzzy logic

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This is part one of a three-part response to the Carlson-Putin interview.   The United Kingdom for all intents and purposes is at war with Russia.  Underlying all other points this must never be forgotten. To my mind Tucker Carlson has pulled off the interview of the year. He allowed Putin to speak, and some have claimed that this has allowed us to glimpse at the world through Putin’s weltanschauung: how he interprets the world, and Russia’s position in it. This could also be an incredibly naive position to take, as it implies that what Putin was telling us was what he believed – for which one must take a gigantic leap of blind faith over a chasm of lies and deception. Putin’s narrative had an altogether different intention. What it was remains opaque, but certainly not truthful.    No sooner had the interview been aired, western commentators began responding. The BBC: Tucker Carlson interview: Fact-checking Putin’s ‘nonsense’ history;1 Britain’s foreign policy think tank, Chatham House writes: ‘Putin’s Carlson interview shows the links between Trump talk and Russian messaging’;2 and Britain’s Guardian writes: ‘Tucker Carlson’s Putin interview wasn’t journalism. It was sycophancy’.3 Russian reactions were also loud. The Russian News Agency has articles with titles such as: ‘Putin’s interview with US journalist racks 150 mln views on X social network’;4 another wrote: ‘Criticism of Putin’s interview with Carlson designed to derail peace dialogue — German MP’;5 and ‘The Pope urges the West to listen to Putin and start negotiations with Russia without any preconditions,” Leonid Sevastyanov stressed’.6   In a liberal society, ideas and their counter ideas should be coming at us from all sides, allowing us to see the world from as many perspectives as possible. Of course, in reality it becomes almost impossible to see “the wood from the trees”. As a Director at the International Centre for Sustainability, based out of London, our very raison d’etre is to do exactly that – make sense of difficult things, from a view that is as objective as possible. Furthermore, we concern ourselves with everything that involves British (Western) and Indian interests – after all we are a centre that comments on both countries. Russia stands at a very perplexing intersection right in between Western and Indian interests. To my mind, it is worth noting the Pope’s first sentence, and maybe not his second one; namely that we ought to listen, and really listen attentively, with ample curiosity.  I have done exactly that. I have tried to listen and really understand the “Putinian worldview” with equal amounts of scepticism.     The first thing to note is that Putin presents a historical narrative. Here he rests on a vision of the historical territorial extent of Russia, using Orthodox Christianity as the binding agent, something which his regime wants to re-create.  This is essentially a state that is trying to claim legitimacy for its hostile actions from historicity. After taking us through a thousand-year history in 30 minutes, he leads us to the thrust of his argument, namely that Ukraine as a state essentially rests on a quasi, even superficial idea with shallow roots in modern history. He claims that Ukraine not so long ago denoted a people (Russian) who lived out on the frontiers – it was a geographical notion, not one of a separate identity. He also criticises Soviet leadership, especially Lenin and Stalin in creating an idea of Ukraine and Ukrainians as a separate region.  All this is particularly dangerous because Putin de-legitimises an entire nation, millions of people who may indeed have interwoven connections with Russianness but classify themselves as distinctly other.   The colonial British tried to do something similar in India. The British tried to convince themselves and everyone else, including the Indians that they were essentially a non-nation, and that they all belonged to completely distinct separate castes, tribes and clans. There was nothing that they could call India, if it were not for the British. Sir John Strachey who had spent many years in the subcontinent, and had once been the Governor General’s Council, gave a series of lectures at Cambridge University to an audience of ‘to-be’ civil servants of the raj. In this lecture he claimed that ‘India was merely a label of convenience, a name which we give to a great region including a multitude of different countries.’7  Strachey was so convinced by his own myopic experience that he said, ‘Scotland is more like Spain than Bengal is like the Punjab’.8 He wasn’t finished. He went on to say with all the hubris-induced self-conviction, ‘in India the diversities of race, language, and religion were far greater. Unlike in Europe, these countries were not nations; they did not have a distinct political or social identity… this is the first and most essential thing to learn about India – that there is not, and never was an India.’9 One wonders what Sir John Strachey would say now if he was to see modern India, unified, and steaming towards her hundred years of independence? The residue of these preposterous notions is still found in countless works of scholarship and worse still, in the attitudes of civil servants and the wider establishment in western nations. Just as the colonial British empire ultimately failed in concocting its false history, Putin too, with his dreams of a Russian Empire, is most likely to fail in de-legitimising Ukraine.   When I speak with Ukrainians, they are first to admit their close ties with Russia and the Russian people, but, they say, “we are Ukrainians, and we want to govern ourselves and protect and promote our own distinct culture and identity.” Certainly, Putin’s history, even if partially correct, does not justify his actions. If one were to follow Putinian ideas to their end, we would have perpetual war and conflict between nations. Just think for a moment if India started to think in the same way about Pakistan, or Bangladesh, or Sri Lanka. It would be nothing short of disaster for everyone concerned. India too,

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City of London, financial capital of the world

Why we shouldn’t forget what made us rich.

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Milton Freedman once wrote “the political system is not inclined to bring about policies that would reduce the scope of government. Politicians win elections by promising benefits, not by imposing burdens.” What Freedman was suggesting was a simple truth, namely that the democratic tendency is always for the state to keep growing by venturing into ever expanding domains where it previously had no business. State power, and responsibility, creeps through promises and manifestos that politicians produce to woo the voters into areas that once were the strict domain of the individual, or family, or civic organisation. Take education, or the fire service, or for that matter the police, these were all in the private domain, before politicians, rightly by any account, decided to take them into the public realm as it was perceived to be a universal public good. “Politicians”, said James Buchanan, “like everyone else, respond to incentives. When they can get away with overspending, overpromising, and overcommitting, they will.” His words echo true today more than ever. Prime ministers of every colour and philosophical inclination from Blair to Brown, even Cameron to Johnson, and now Sunak have all expanded the remit of the state. Each has spent and borrowed continuously increasing the overall debt of the country. Ten percent of all the tax collected by the exchequer will be spent on servicing the UK national debt.[1] In most developed economies the numbers tell the same story, because politicians have worked out that so long as every country proportionately continues to overspend and over commit, the markets will be hoodwinked into a false sense of reality, at least in the short term, exactly what politicians prefer to think about — the short term. Ultimately, however, reality catches up in the form of inflation. Inflation, if not tackled quickly, has the power to bring down nations and even empires. History is a graveyard full of such nations and empires that ruled for centuries only to be brought to its knees by inflation caused by reckless fiscal management. Most developed economies today suffer from higher inflation, rising national debts, cuts in public spending, and burgeoning population of elderly citizens. Many in the West have lost confidence in the system, having spent the last two decades without a real wage rise, while the cost of living has spiralled. Only very recently have we seen any real rise in wages, and that too mostly from the private sector. This has quite rightly left many working-class, and younger voters disenchanted and out of love with open markets. Open markets have worked tremendously well to an extent, but not for everyone. Many people feel left behind. Citizens throughout the developed West are asking if we have run out of steam? Are we in need of a new economic model? At the heart of this disenchantment is China. China brought to the world stage State Capitalism at a scale never seen before. Central to the idea is that protectionism is the way to cope with the buffeting of open markets. China’s extraordinary success convinced unions in the West that they had a lot to lose from the free movement of goods across borders. Then came Covid-19, which informed western policy makers that supply chains were fragile and needed near-shoring or onshoring again. China’s state capitalism, with its disregard for international law, human rights, and rule-based trading system, was seized on in developed countries as a justification for state intervention. Politicians laboured over the fragility of international supply chains, echoed by unions and the anti-globalisation lobby all culminating in building what some have called a ‘cathedral of fear’. That fear had to be addressed by more government, more intervention, more protectionism, and with ever more government comes ever more spending. We have begun to adopt, at our own peril, a Chinese inspired State Capitalism. State intervention and closing of open markets is dangerous on several grounds. Open markets during downturns, if left alone, clear out poor businesses, those that are inefficient, or simply unable to modernise as per customer demands. This pain spurs innovation and new businesses are formed, and the economy is revitalised, creating new wealth and prosperity. None of which requires the government. We need only allow market forces to do their job. State protectionism reduces, or even protects us from this necessary pain. Governments to tackle inflation need to spend less, a lot less, and increase taxes to burn access liquidity in the market. The Conservative Party, under Sunak, has gone against its own ideological position of lowering taxes and has raised taxes to the highest level in modern British history as a percentage of GDP. Starmer, to his credit has indicated that he will maintain the Conservative status quo and keep Britain on a strict fiscal diet to bring down inflation. These are tough asks in a democracy. What Britain needs is less government, not more. State intervention is often too slow, cumbersome, and incapable of meeting the demands of a modern globalised economy. The AI and energy transitions required are simply too fast paced and complex for government to plan. Ideas need to be tested and left to die, or rise, by markets, not government committees giving out subsides. Excessive regulation will inhibit innovation and, by raising costs, make change slower and ultimately more painful without clearing out all the deadwood in the economy. The problem is that politicians love spending other people’s money, and as government budgets get ever bigger, special interests will have a feeding frenzy and a growing influence. The way forward: 7-points to keep in mind The way forward is to simply have the courage to do what we know to be right. We know the way; our leaders just need to have the courage to walk it. First, allow markets to do what they do best — meet consumer demand in the most efficient manner. In almost every sector government need not be active, and simply enable free market economics to take shape. Where supply outstrips demand,

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